The Indian markets are set to open on a cautious note this Monday, influenced by global weakness, continued FII outflows, and muted cues from corporate earnings. Despite a profit beat from TCS, its weak revenue growth and downbeat commentary have weighed on IT sector sentiment. Investors are now looking forward to key macro data from the U.S. this week, which could drive global market direction.
🔍 Global Market Snapshot
- Global equities closed last week lower amid concerns over slowing demand and trade tensions.
- U.S. markets ended slightly negative on Friday.
- Asian markets are trading mixed in early Monday trade.
- GIFT Nifty is trading around 25,170, down ~0.2%, indicating a soft open for Indian equities.
🔻 Nifty Technical Outlook
| Key Levels | Range |
|---|---|
| Support | 25,150 – 25,100 |
| Resistance | 25,300 – 25,350 |
Nifty may remain range-bound today, with pressure likely from IT stocks and global sentiment. A break below 25,100 could see further downside, while sustained movement above 25,350 may lead to short-covering.
🏦 Institutional Activity – Friday, July 12
FII (Foreign Institutional Investors)
- Net SELL of ₹5,104 crore
- Continued unwinding in both cash and futures segment
DII (Domestic Institutional Investors)
- Net BUY of ₹3,559 crore
- Providing steady support to the market
Monthly Tally (till July 12)
- FII: Net Outflow ~₹10,284 crore
- DII: Net Inflow ~₹12,403 crore
📈 FII Derivatives Positions
- Index Futures: Net short position of ~₹3,538 crore
- Index Options: Net short of ~₹3,242 crore
- Overall Net Short Exposure (Futures): Surged to ₹1.03 lakh crore
This suggests foreign investors are still positioning for potential downside or are protecting long portfolios with derivatives.
🔁 Options Market – July Expiry View
- Heavy Open Interest at 25,000 (Put) and 25,500 (Call)
- Indicates likely range: 25,000 to 25,500
- Bias slightly tilted to the downside amid weak global cues and FII hedging
🧾 Corporate Earnings – Q1 FY2026
✅ TCS (Announced July 10)
- Net Profit: ₹12,760 crore (↑6% YoY)
- Revenue: ₹63,437 crore (missed expectations, down QoQ)
- Margin: 24.5% (↑ 30 bps QoQ)
- Total Deal Wins: $9.4 billion (lower than Q4)
Despite the profit growth, weak topline performance and cautious commentary pulled the stock down post-results. IT index may stay under pressure today.
🔜 Upcoming Key Results This Week:
- Infosys, HCLTech, HDFC Bank among the majors expected to announce earnings starting mid-week
🌍 Global Events to Watch
Tonight (July 14, U.S. time):
- U.S. Treasury Bill Auctions – could affect bond yields and dollar strength
This Week (Key Data):
- Tuesday (July 15): U.S. CPI & Core Inflation – crucial for Fed rate outlook
- Thursday (July 17): U.S. Retail Sales & Initial Jobless Claims
Global markets will take cues from these numbers, which may influence flows into Indian equities.
✅ Market Summary Dashboard
| Parameter | Status |
|---|---|
| GIFT Nifty | ~25,170 (↓ 0.2%) |
| Nifty Support | 25,150 / 25,100 |
| Nifty Resistance | 25,300 / 25,350 |
| FII Cash | ₹–5,104 Cr (Net Sell) |
| DII Cash | ₹+3,559 Cr (Net Buy) |
| FII Derivatives | Net Short ₹3,500+ Cr (Futures & Options) |
| TCS Earnings Impact | Drag on IT; weak revenue outlook |
| U.S. Focus | CPI & Retail Sales this week |
🔔 Key Things to Watch Today
- IT Sector Pressure: After TCS results, watch Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro ahead of their earnings.
- FII Flows: If selling continues, expect pressure in large-caps.
- 25,150 Level: A breakdown may trigger selling toward 25,000.
- Stock-Specific Action: Mid- and small-cap companies announcing results could drive intraday volatility.
- Global Volatility: Anticipation ahead of U.S. CPI may limit aggressive positions.