The Indian stock market is poised for a positive opening today, indicated by strong bullish signals from GIFT Nifty futures and a robust closing in US markets. This comes after yesterday’s decline, offering a potential relief rally as investors digest various global and domestic cues.
Key Pointers for Today’s Opening:
- GIFT Nifty Signals Gap-Up: GIFT Nifty futures are trading higher this morning, around 24,790 – 24,813, which implies a gap-up opening of 20-40 points for the Nifty 50 compared to its yesterday’s close of 24,542.50. This is a strong positive indicator.
- Positive Global Lead:
- US Markets Rebounded Strongly: US markets (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) showed remarkable resilience yesterday, recovering from early losses and closing in the green. The Nasdaq notably outperformed, driven by renewed interest in AI-related tech stocks. This provides a strong positive overnight cue.
- Asian Markets Mixed to Positive: Most Asian markets are trading mixed to positive this morning, adding to the cautiously optimistic global sentiment.
- Domestic Factors in Focus:
- RBI MPC Meeting Commences: The highly anticipated RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting began today, June 4, and will conclude on June 6. The market is keenly awaiting the policy decision on Friday, with a strong expectation for a 25 basis points repo rate cut. Some reports even suggest a “jumbo” 50 bps cut is possible, which could provide a significant boost to sentiment.
- Q4 FY25 GDP Data Impact: The stronger-than-expected Q4 FY25 GDP growth of 7.4% continues to provide fundamental support to the Indian economy and investor confidence.
- FII/DII Data: On Tuesday, June 3, FIIs remained net sellers, offloading equities worth ₹2,853.83 crore. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their strong buying, purchasing equities worth ₹5,907.97 crore. DII support remains crucial in offsetting FII outflows.
- India VIX: The India VIX surged yesterday, reflecting increased volatility and investor apprehension ahead of the RBI policy. This suggests traders are factoring in potential market swings.
Key Levels to Watch for Nifty 50:
- Support: 24,500, 24,450, 24,300
- Resistance: 24,700, 24,800, 24,900 (yesterday’s key resistance and today’s expected opening area)
Stocks in Focus Today:
- Adani Group Stocks: Will be under scrutiny after the Adani Group denied reports of a US investigation linked to alleged imports of Iranian LPG, calling them “baseless and mischievous.” Volatility can be expected.
- Yes Bank: Likely to see continued volatility after the bank denied reports of Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation seeking a controlling stake, which led to a sharp drop yesterday. The board meeting to consider fundraising is key.
- Tata Motors: Investors will react to its 8.6% YoY decline in total sales for May 2025.
- TVS Motor: Expected to see positive momentum after reporting a 17% rise in total sales for May 2025 (YoY).
- Alembic Pharma: Could face pressure after receiving four observations from the US FDA for its Gujarat plants.
- Fertilizer Stocks (e.g., FACT, RCF): Likely to continue their positive momentum due to the Indian Meteorological Department’s forecast of an early monsoon with above-normal rainfall in 2025, boosting demand expectations.
- Coal India: Its subsidiary, Bharat Coking Coal Ltd (BCCL), has filed its DRHP with SEBI for a proposed IPO, which could bring attention to Coal India.
- Godrej Properties: Positive news regarding a new 14-acre premium housing project in Pune with an estimated revenue of ₹4,200 crore could see its stock gain.
- NSE Shares (Unlisted Market): Continue to surge amid IPO speculation, reaching high valuations.
Global & Domestic Data to Watch Today:
- India Final Manufacturing PMI (May 2025): The final reading of 57.6, though a three-month low, still indicates robust expansion. Its impact is likely already factored in.
- US JOLTS Job Openings (May): (Due later today, 10:00 AM ET / 7:30 PM IST) This will provide fresh insights into the US labor market health.
- US Factory Orders (April): (Due later today, 10:00 AM ET / 7:30 PM IST) This will provide a snapshot of manufacturing sector activity.
Overall Outlook:
The Indian market is set for a positive start, recouping some of yesterday’s losses, driven by strong global cues and renewed optimism around the domestic economy and the upcoming RBI policy. However, the market remains susceptible to FII selling and global trade war headlines. Volatility is expected to remain elevated ahead of the RBI policy outcome on Friday. Investors should remain cautious and nimble, focusing on stock-specific news and managing risk.