📌 Market Overview
The Indian equity market is expected to open on a cautious yet slightly positive note, driven by favorable global cues and slight optimism reflected in Gift Nifty. However, persistent FII selling and rising volatility ahead of key global economic events could limit the upside.
📊 Key Levels
Nifty 50
- Support: 25,320
- Resistance: 25,480 (immediate), 25,540 (strong resistance)
Bank Nifty
- Support: 56,487 – 56,600
- Resistance: 57,200 – 57,345
Nifty needs to decisively break above 25,480 for a continuation of bullish momentum. Any failure may result in rangebound or mild correction towards the support zone.
💼 Institutional Activity
FII/DII (Cash Segment – July 4, 2025)
- Foreign Institutional Investors (FII): Net Sold ₹760 crore
- Domestic Institutional Investors (DII): Net Sold ₹1,029 crore
Institutional outflows on both fronts suggest a cautious stance ahead of global events and earnings season.
📈 Derivatives Data
FII Index Futures Positioning
- Net Short Position: ₹65,800 crore
FIIs have increased their short positions in index futures, indicating a defensive or hedged outlook on the broader market.
Index Option Activity (FII)
- Put Options Bought: ~4.30 lakh contracts
- Put Options Sold: ~2.78 lakh contracts
This skewed put buying reflects downside hedging or protection against a potential dip.
🌐 Global Cues – Gift Nifty
- Gift Nifty: Trading ~20 points above spot Nifty
Indicates a flat to slightly positive start for the Indian market.
🔎 Open Interest (July Monthly Expiry)
- Put writers active near 25,300–25,400 range
- Call writers building up at 25,500–25,600
This suggests a near-term trading band with resistance above 25,500.
📰 Key News & Updates
- Crude oil prices eased as OPEC+ signals increased output, reducing inflation concerns for oil-importing countries like India.
- FIIs continue hedging using derivatives despite ongoing selling in the cash segment.
- Investors are awaiting clarity on India–US trade developments and corporate earnings guidance.
- Mixed signals from global markets; U.S. equity indices closed mildly positive last week.
📅 Global Economic Events – Tonight (July 7, 2025)
- FOMC Meeting Minutes (June): Scheduled for release at 10:00 PM IST
This is a crucial macro event that may set the tone for global markets. Hawkish commentary could strengthen the dollar and raise bond yields, which might impact emerging markets like India.
📌 Outlook & Strategy
- Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish with a tight range
- Trigger Levels:
- Nifty breakout above 25,480 may test 25,540+
- Breakdown below 25,320 may invite profit booking
- Bank Nifty: Watch for a close above 57,200 to confirm a bullish breakout
- Options Activity: Suggests hedged sentiment with bearish bias unless key resistance levels are breached
- Watchlist Sectors: FMCG, Auto, PSU Banks for strength; IT and Pharma for possible volatility
✅ Summary Table
| Category | Data/Level |
|---|---|
| Nifty 50 Support | 25,320 |
| Nifty 50 Resistance | 25,480 / 25,540 |
| Bank Nifty Support | 56,487 – 56,600 |
| Bank Nifty Resistance | 57,200 – 57,345 |
| FII (Cash) | ₹760 Cr Sold |
| DII (Cash) | ₹1,029 Cr Sold |
| FII Index Futures | Net Short ₹65,800 Cr |
| Gift Nifty | +20 Points over Spot |
| FOMC Minutes Release | Tonight, 10:00 PM IST |
⚠️ Final Note
Expect rangebound volatility in the early part of the day. Watch for cues from the U.S. Fed minutes and fresh news on India–US trade developments. Any breakout in Nifty or Bank Nifty beyond resistance levels could lead to short-covering rallies.
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