🌏 1. Market Open Signals & GIFT Nifty
- GIFT Nifty is indicating a positive open, up about 100 points (~0.4%), hinting at a Nifty start above Monday’s close around 25,090.
- Markets are buoyed by strong Q1 results from HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, although some softness from Reliance is keeping gains in check.
- Global sentiment is supportive, with Wall Street gains and optimism around US trade talks boosting investor confidence.
📊 2. Nifty Technical Levels
- Immediate Support: 25,050
- Strong Support: 25,000
- Resistance Levels: 25,250 → 25,400
Outlook: As long as Nifty remains above 25,050–25,000, the bias remains skews slightly positive. A breakout above 25,250–25,400 could trigger further upside toward 25,500+.
💼 3. FII & DII Flows – Monday (21st July)
| Investor | Net Flow (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| FII | –16,810 (sold) |
| DII | +35,780 (bought) |
- Foreign investors were net sellers, continuing a broader short-term withdrawal.
- Domestic institutions turned heavy buyers, absorbing the foreign selling and providing market support.
🔁 4. FII Derivative Positioning – Index Futures
- FIIs significantly increased short positions, and their shorts dominate their overall futures exposure.
- This is in line with broader caution in derivatives amid global uncertainties.
📈 5. Derivatives Snapshot – July Options
- Put-Call Ratio (PCR): ~0.75 – mildly bearish
- High OI Call Strikes: 25,500 / 25,250
- High OI Put Strikes: 25,000 / 24,800
Implication: These strikes suggest a trading band between 25,000–25,500, with the market likely to stay bound within this range until fresh triggers emerge.
🗞️ 6. News & Market Movers
- Strong Bank Earnings: HDFC Bank grew profits ~12% YoY, ICICI Bank delivered ~15% YoY profit growth—both bolstered market sentiment.
- Headliners Today: United Breweries and Colgate-Palmolive India release Q1 earnings. Investors will be watching mid-cap consumer cues.
- Recent Highlights:
- PNB Housing Finance posted solid growth on home loan traction.
- Havells India fell short of margins amid competitive pressure.
- BL Kashyap secured a large contract in the infrastructure space.
🌍 7. Key US Economic Events Tonight
- Retail Sales (June): Expected tonight and pivotal for assessing US consumption strength and Fed policy outlook.
- Import/Export Price Data: Also due, which could signal inflation trends from the trade channel.
- Any surprise in either could shift global risk appetite.
📌 8. Summary & Strategy
| Key Focus | Insight |
|---|---|
| Market Bias | Mildly positive — supported by banks, capped by Reliance and global caution |
| Technical Range | 25,000–25,500; watch for breakouts |
| Institutional Flows | FIIs exited, DIIs stepped in |
| Derivatives Position | FII short bias remains elevated |
| Corporate Catalysts | Bank earnings strong; consumer mid-caps today |
| Global Trigger | US retail sales tonight may sway sentiment |
🎯 9. Trading Plan
- Long Range: Buy on dips near 25,050–25,100 with tight stops below 25,000
- Short Range: Consider short near 25,400–25,450 if momentum fades
- Watchlist: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, United Breweries, Colgate-Palmolive India, Havells