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Market snapshot (pre-open)
- Nifty (last close / reference): 24,585.05 (close on Aug 11).
- GIFT / SGX Nifty (pre-market): signalling a slightly higher open, mid-24.6k area (implying a mildly positive start).
Technical bias — support & resistance (intraday / short term)
- Immediate support: 24,300 — 24,200 (first support cluster / put-OI band).
- Key support (deeper): 24,000 (structural put-OI area).
- Immediate resistance: 24,700 — 24,850.
- Key resistance / psychological: 25,000 (heavy call interest sits here).
- Bias: Neutral → cautiously constructive above 24.7k; caution below 24.2k.
Flow & positioning — FII / DII (last trading day)
- Latest cash flows (last session, 11 Aug): FIIs — net sellers (net ~-₹1,203 crore on Aug 11); DIIs — net buyers (net ~+₹5,972 crore on Aug 11). Domestic mutual funds / DIIs have been the bid when FIIs step back.
FII long / short in index futures — snapshot
- FII futures posture: Foreign institutional activity shows elevated net short positioning in index futures (structural short bias persists). That leaves room for a quick short-covering pop if price breaks the heavy call OI band — but also leaves the market vulnerable to further downside if selling resumes. (Watch early session futures flow for any sign of covering.)
August option-chain read (high level)
- Call OI concentration (resistance): heaviest Call OI clustered around 25,000 (and strikes just below it).
- Put OI concentration (support): significant Put OI in the 24,000 — 24,600 area.
- Net read: the mid-24k band is the “max-pain / swing” region for the near term — a decisive move above the 25k call cluster would likely trigger accelerated short covering; failure under 24.2k would activate put-level selling. (Checked live option-chain snapshots this morning.)
News & corporate results (fresh / market moving)
- Earnings & corporate: recent Q1 prints (notably State Bank of India, Tata Motors and several others) helped sentiment in the prior session; result flow continues to keep individual stocks active. Markets saw mixed company updates this morning (some cyclical names reporting).
- Headline risk: US tariff chatter / geopolitical headlines and trade talk remain the main external risk that can override domestic positives.
US economic events / what’s on tonight (India time)
- Major US data today: US CPI (July) is scheduled today (US morning), a key print that will drive global yields and risk sentiment into the Asia session and overnight. Market participants are watching CPI closely for Fed-cut timing signals.
What I’ll watch in the session (quick trader checklist)
- Open vs GIFT/SGX: a gap above 24.7k–24.85k with volume → short-covering momentum; a gap below 24.2k → test lower put support.
- FII futures flow: early covering of FII shorts (rapid fall in futures short OI) → fuel for quick rally.
- Behaviour around 25k call OI & 24k put OI: those bands will define intraday directional edge.
- US CPI headlines overnight: a hotter or cooler CPI will shift risk appetite and global flow into our session.