1) Opening Snapshot
- GIFT Nifty (08:30–09:30 IST read): ~25,000 (+1.4%–1.7% vs Thu close), pointing to a strong gap-up open.
- Backdrop: Softer crude, supportive global risk tone, and domestic GST-cut chatter keep sentiment risk-on.
2) Nifty & Bank Nifty — Intraday Map
Nifty 50
- Supports: 24,720 → 24,600, then 24,450 / 24,300.
- Resistances: 25,000 → 25,120, stretch 25,300.
- Plan: Acceptance above 25,000 can unlock a squeeze toward 25,120–25,300; rejection back under 24,720 risks a fade of the gap.
Bank Nifty
- Supports: 52,700 → 52,400, then 52,000.
- Resistances: 53,500 → 53,900, stretch 54,300.
- Plan: Leadership from large banks is key to sustain a Nifty hold >25k.
3) Cash Flows (last trading day: Thu, 14 Aug 2025)
- FII (cash): Buy ₹13,646 cr | Sell ₹15,573 cr | Net –₹1,927 cr (net sellers).
- DII (cash): Buy ₹13,144 cr | Sell ₹9,249 cr | Net +₹3,896 cr (net buyers).
Read: DIIs continue to cushion dips; FIIs still trimming risk on strength.
4) FII Index Futures Positioning (as of Thu)
- Posture: FIIs remain net short in Index Futures; shorts > longs.
- Trading read: A clean hold above 25,000 can force short-covering pops; failure near 25,100–25,300 likely attracts call-writing.
5) August Monthly Options — OI Picture (Nifty)
- Call OI (resistance cluster): 25,000 is the key wall; stacked layers at 25,100 / 25,200.
- Put OI (support base): 24,500–24,300 band holds the heaviest put interest, with 24,600 a nearer shelf.
- Implication: Range shifts up if 25k is accepted; below 24,720 the day can slip back into the mid-24k “magnet”.
(Note: OI evolves intraday; treat these as the opening heatmap for the monthly series.)
6) News & Tape to Watch
- Macro lift: Easing oil and constructive geopolitics support risk appetite.
- Domestic policy tone: Speculation around targeted GST rate relief (autos/consumption) remains a sentiment positive.
- Flows: Despite FII cash selling, a gap-up plus any sign of futures short-covering can extend the first-hour move.
7) U.S. Calendar — Tonight (IST)
- NAHB Homebuilder Confidence (10:00 pm IST ≈ 12:30 pm ET): modest impact; housing tone check.
- Fed-speak/minutes & Jackson Hole later in the week stay in focus for rate-cut odds.
- Earnings (U.S. retailers this week): big-box prints can sway global risk tone and EM flows.
8) India Results — Today
- Heavyweights: No marquee Nifty heavyweights on deck at open. Action skewed to mid/small-caps with scattered Q1 FY26 prints.
- Recently reported names may stay active on follow-through (telecoms, select pharma/consumer).
9) Trade Setups (intraday)
- Gap-and-Go (bullish):
- Entry: On acceptance > 25,000 after first 15–30 mins.
- Target: 25,120 → 25,300.
- Invalidation: Back below 24,950 (cash), or a sharp OI build at 25.1k CE.
- Failed Break (fade):
- Entry: Rejection w/ wicks at 25,050–25,120, plus CE build-up.
- Target: 24,900 → 24,720.
- Invalidation: Strong breadth + drop in FII index-futures shorts.
Sector lens: Banks & large lenders to confirm the move; autos/FMCG benefit from GST optimism; metals track global cues.
Quick Summary (one-liner)
Bullish open on global + domestic cues; 25,000 is the battleground. Above it = squeeze; lose 24,720 = gap fade toward mid-24k. DIIs supportive, FIIs still selling — watch for a short-covering tell in index futures.