Market outlook
A firmer start is indicated. Overnight optimism around U.S. rate-cut odds spilled into Asia, and Gift Nifty is implying a green open for Nifty. IT could lead on follow-through buying; watch banks for confirmation.
Nifty 50 — key trading levels (today)
- Supports: 24,800 / 24,740, deeper 24,660
- Resistances: 24,980 / 25,050, stretch 25,120
- Bias: Buy-on-dips above 24,740; momentum unlocks only on decisive acceptance above 25,000.
Gift Nifty (pre-open read)
- Trading near the 24,93x–24,96x zone ahead of the open — a mild premium to yesterday’s close, pointing to a positive start.
Institutional flows (cash market — yesterday)
- FII: –₹2,170 cr (net sell)
- DII: +₹3,014 cr (net buy)
Read-through: domestic buying continues to cushion foreign outflows; breadth improves on up-moves but remains sensitive to global cues.
FII index-futures stance
- Positioning: FIIs remain net short in index futures at the start of the September series (shorts > longs).
- Takeaway: Rallies into overhead strikes can see supply; watch the first-hour shift in participant-wise OI for a squeeze or add-on shorts.
September series – Nifty options map
- Max Call OI: 25,000 CE (headline resistance)
- Max Put OI: 24,500 PE (primary floor)
- Active intraday zone: Calls building around 24,900–25,000; puts defending 24,700–24,800.
- Implication: Probable 24,75x–25,00x box unless banks/IT push through 25k.
News & movers to watch at the open
- Macro tone: Risk appetite supported by growing odds of a near-term Fed cut; Indian indices tracking Asia higher.
- Stocks in focus: Large-cap IT (carry-through strength), select industrials and PSUs on order-flow headlines; monitor high-beta midcaps for froth/unwind risk near 25k.
- Sector lens: IT positive bias; Financials key for sustaining any breakout; Defensives (FMCG/Pharma) likely neutral.
U.S. docket tonight (IST)
- No major tier-1 data drop tonight. Markets are positioned into Thursday’s U.S. CPI (Aug); second-tier items like inventories and any Fed speak can still sway yields/FX.
- Read-through for India tomorrow: A calm dollar/UST backdrop would aid risk; any hawkish surprise keeps 25k a heavy ceiling.