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Market tone
A cautious start expected. Early reads point to some profit-taking after recent gains; markets are watching U.S. yields and the USD/INR move this morning for direction.
GIFT Nifty (pre-open)
Signalling a soft open — trading lower versus the previous close and suggesting a muted start for the cash session.
Nifty — key intraday levels
- Immediate support: 25,000 – 24,950
- Primary floor: 24,750
- Immediate resistance: 25,300 – 25,350
- Stretch resistance: 25,500 – 25,700
Playbook: Treat 25,000–25,300 as the core intraday band. Buy shallow dips toward 25,000 with tight stops; trim into strength around 25,300–25,350 unless you see clear, sustained short-covering.
Institutional flows — last full day (most recent close)
- FII (cash): modest net buy (~₹367 crore)
- DII (cash): strong net buy (~₹3,327 crore)
Domestic institutions remain the main bid; FIIs are participating modestly. That mix supports a range-bound market with upside capped by option-chain supply.
FII activity in index futures (latest read)
FIIs have been trimming outright short exposure and reshaping positions. The near-term picture is dominated by short-covering rather than fresh aggressive long buying — i.e., lower net short exposure versus earlier levels.
Implication: If short-covering continues in the opening hour, the market can spike quickly; if it pauses, rallies may stall into the call wall.
September options — OI snapshot (nearby expiries)
- Major Call concentration (overhead): ~25,300 – 26,000
- Major Put concentration (support): ~24,800 – 25,000
Trade inference: Operational battleground sits near 24,800–25,300. Put defenders likely to prop dips near 24.8–25.0; call sellers could cap rallies into the 25.3–25.6k zone.
USD/INR & currency moves
- USD/INR is softer this morning versus the prior close; the rupee has been trading in the ~88.10–88.25 area.
- What to watch: A quick move above 88.30 would likely amplify pressure on rate-sensitive and import-heavy names; a decisive move below 88.00 would be supportive for sentiment and exporters.
Key newsflow & sector cues this morning
- Markets are digesting recent Fed commentary and U.S. yield moves — that remains the dominant influence on flows.
- Exporters and commodity-linked names will be sensitive to currency and trade headlines; financials and large caps will likely drive direction if flows turn positive.
- Positioning remains tilted toward hedged exposure; expect choppy intraday moves around option walls.
U.S. events to watch (tonight / overnight IST)
- PPI / inflation prints and any Fed-speaker comments — these will move U.S. yields and the dollar, which in turn will influence flows into Indian equities and the rupee overnight.
Short, actionable checklist
- Base intraday range: 25,000 – 25,300
- Bull trigger: sustained move above 25,350 with clear futures short-covering
- Bear trigger: failure below 24,950 with accelerating futures selling
- Risk control: use 24,900 as a local pivot for intraday long stops; watch realtime FII futures delta + option OI shifts at 25.0–25.5 for bias confirmation.