Market mood
Markets look cautious this morning. U.S. visa-fee hikes and tariff-related worries are dragging sentiment, especially for sectors like IT. Meanwhile, domestic flows are mixed. Overall, expect a tentative start, with directional moves contingent on news or sharp futures flows.
USD/INR & currency moves
- The rupee is under pressure, trading around ₹88.30 per USD — marginally weaker compared to the previous close.
- Dollar strength and importer demand are weighing; the currency could weaken further if external risks rise or if global yields pull up.
FII / DII snapshot (cash market, latest full day)
- FII: Net seller ≈ ₹2,910 crore in cash equities on latest day. (turn0search8)
- DII: Net buyer ≈ ₹2,582 crore in cash. (turn0search8)
- Takeaway: Domestic institutions are providing some cushion, but foreign capital is pulling back, putting pressures on certain sectors.
Gift Nifty / Pre-open read
- Gift Nifty futures are downley relative to spot; expect Nifty to open slightly lower unless there’s sharp positive catalyst in early trade.
Support & Resistance (Nifty)
- Immediate support: 25,000 – 25,100
- Primary floor: 24,750
- Immediate resistance: 25,400 – 25,500
- Stretch resistance: 25,700
Expect trading to oscillate in the 25,000 – 25,500 range. A sustainable move above 25,500 would open room toward 25,700, while weakness below 25,000 risks a move toward 24,750.
FII Futures positioning (rough picture)
- FIIs show a moderate net reduction in short exposure in recent sessions. Long additions have been selective.
- The bias appears mildly defensive: short covering may support rallies but fresh long bets seem cautious.
September options map (key OI battlegrounds)
- Call OI (resistance): clustered in the 25,300-25,500 strike range
- Put OI (support): focused around 24,900-25,100 strikes
These set up a key corridor: support around 25,000-25,100, resistance near 25,400-25,500.
News & sector triggers
- The H-1B visa fee hike in the U.S. is causing concern for IT sector valuations.
- Tariff worries persist, especially for sectors exposed to global trade or sourcing.
- Domestic sectors like financials may see interest if interest rate expectations stabilize.
- Volatility index (India VIX) has ticked up, indicating investors are becoming more nervous. (turn0search3)
U.S./Global risks to watch in the near term
- Any U.S. policy announcements or speeches related to trade or tariffs.
- U.S. rate / inflation data — will impact global yields, flows.
- Dollar strength: if it picks up further, emerging market currencies and equities may see pressure.
Trading plan of attack
- Base case: range trade within 25,000 – 25,500.
- Bullish scenario: clear break above 25,500 with strong futures short-covering → target 25,700.
- Bearish trigger: drop below 25,000 with acceleration → possible slide toward 24,750.
- Tactical tips: Buy small dips near 25,000 with tight stops; trim on strength near resistance. Keep an eye on early FII futures flow and option OI shifts for bias confirmation.