Quick headline
Expect a flat-to-cautious open. Foreign selling and tariff/visa headlines have kept sentiment fragile, while domestic funds are absorbing flows ahead of an important RBI policy meeting. Gift Nifty indicates the market will open close to yesterday’s levels.
GIFT Nifty (pre-open)
Trading around ~24,690–24,700 — pointing to a near-flat start for the cash session.
Nifty — key intraday levels
- Immediate support: 24,500 – 24,650
- Primary floor: 24,200 – 24,250
- Immediate resistance: 24,900 – 25,050
- Stretch resistance: 25,300 – 25,500
View: Expect the day to trade inside 24,500 – 25,050 unless a clear macro or flow surprise forces an escape.
Institutional flows (last trading day)
- FII (cash): net sell ≈ ₹2,800–₹2,900 crore (continued foreign selling pressure)
- DII (cash): net buy ≈ ₹3,700–₹3,900 crore (domestic funds absorbing selling)
Takeaway: DIIs remain the main stabiliser; persistent FII selling keeps sustained rallies difficult without fresh foreign demand.
FII index-futures positioning (latest read)
- FIIs have been re-shaping positions — adding longs and shorts in pockets (a mix of fresh long additions and hedge-building). Net effect is a choppy market structure where short-covering can spike rallies, but fresh short builds can cap gains.
September options (OI map — nearby expiries)
- Major Call OI (overhead / resistance): around 25,300 – 25,600
- Major Put OI (support): around 24,800 – 25,000
Implication: Tactical battleground is 24,800 – 25,400. Puts should prop dips near 24.8–25.0; calls are likely to cap rallies into the 25.3–25.6k zone.
USD/INR — currency snapshot
- Rupee: trading weakly this morning near ~88.7–88.9 / USD.
- Market impact: A sustained break above ~89.0 would add pressure on rate-sensitive and import-heavy names; a move back below ~88.4–88.5 would ease pressure on exporters and sentiment.
News & market drivers this morning
- Continued focus on tariff/visa headlines and foreign flow data.
- RBI policy meeting tomorrow is a near-term event risk; markets are positioned for no surprise, but guidance will matter.
- Sector focus: IT & exporters (sensitive to visa/trade); financials (sensitive to domestic policy and rates).
U.S. / global events to watch (today)
- Any late-day U.S. developments — Fed comments, Treasury yields and dollar strength — will influence Asian trading overnight and could change flows into India.
Trading playbook — practical rules for the day
- Base range: 24,500 – 25,050.
- Bull trigger: sustained move above 25,100 – 25,200 with visible futures short-covering → targets 25,300 / 25,500.
- Bear trigger: break & hold below 24,500 → targets 24,250 / 24,000.
- Tactics: size lightly, buy shallow dips into 24.5k with tight stops; trim into strength at heavy call walls; watch real-time FII futures delta and USD/INR for quick confirmation.