Topline view
Expect a flat-to-cautious open. Domestic support from banks/metals is balanced by ongoing foreign selling and a soft rupee. Market action is likely to be rangey until we get clearer FII flow or a decisive macro cue.
GIFT Nifty (pre-open)
Trading around 24,950 – 24,965 — indicating a near-flat start for the Nifty cash session.
NIFTY — Key levels for the day
- Immediate support: 24,650 – 24,750
- Primary floor: 24,300 – 24,400
- Immediate resistance: 24,950 – 25,050
- Stretch resistance: 25,300 – 25,500
Read: Intraday range likely 24,650 – 25,050. A decisive hold above 25,100 would open room to 25,300; a break below 24,650 would expose the 24,300 area.
Institutional flows (most recent full day)
- FII (cash): net sell ~ ₹1,580 crore (foreign selling continues).
- DII (cash): net buy ~ ₹490 crore (domestic funds buying modestly).
Domestic buying is cushioning the FII outflow, but sustained foreign selling keeps upside capped.
FII activity in index futures — longs & shorts (latest positioning)
- Long exposure: trimmed by roughly 1,200 contracts (reduction in outright longs).
- Short exposure: increased by roughly 2,800 contracts (fresh short additions / hedges).
Implication: Overall FII futures positioning has turned mildly net-short — rallies are likely to be met with supply unless short-covering kicks in.
September series — options OI snapshot (reference strikes)
- Call cluster (resistance): 25,300 – 25,600 CE (overhead supply).
- Put cluster (support): 24,800 – 25,000 PE (nearby floor).
Expect the tactical battleground to sit around 24,800 – 25,400; puts should prop dips near 24.8–25.0 while heavy calls can cap rallies into 25.5k.
USD/INR — currency moves this morning
- Rupee: trading weak around ~₹88.70 – 88.80 / USD in early reads.
- Rule of thumb: a sustained move above ~89.00 would increase pressure on rate-sensitive and importers; a reclaim below ~88.40 would ease stress on exporters and sentiment.
News & sector cues to watch at open
- Tariff/visa & trade noise continues to pressure IT/export names.
- Banks & metals are the main domestic supports; watch them for any leadership rotation.
- Event risk: RBI policy commentary this week is on traders’ radar — guidance there could shift positioning quickly.
U.S. / global events to watch (tonight)
- Watch for Fed-related commentary (speeches) and any unexpected inflation or activity prints — these will set U.S. yields and dollar direction and feed into Asian risk flows overnight.
Trading playbook — practical rules for today
- Base case: range trade 24,650 – 25,050.
- Bull trigger: sustained move above 25,100 with visible short-covering → target 25,300 / 25,500.
- Bear trigger: break & hold below 24,650 → target 24,400 / 24,200.
- Tactics: keep intraday sizes light, buy shallow dips into the put-OI zone (24.8–25.0) with tight stops, trim into rallies near heavy call OI, and use early FII futures delta + USD/INR moves as your bias-confirmation signals.