Topline take
Expect a cautious, slightly soft open. Overseas risk headlines and a firm dollar are keeping export/IT names on edge; domestic funds are still providing support, but the market needs fresh FII buying to sustain any rally.
GIFT Nifty (pre-open)
- Reading: around ~25,320–25,330 in pre-open futures — implies a soft-to-flat start for cash indices this morning.
USD/INR — currency snapshot
- Level: the rupee is trading around ~88.70–88.78 / USD in early trade — marginally softer and still a watch item for equity sentiment. A sustained move above ~88.90–89.00 would be negative for risk appetite; a fallback under ~88.40 would ease pressure.
FII / DII — latest full trading day (reference)
- FII (cash, last session): net buy ≈ ₹459 crore.
- DII (cash, last session): net buy ≈ ₹1,707.8 crore.
Domestic institutions remain the steady bid while FIIs are selectively participating — that combination supports a contained downside but caps strong upside without fresh offshore flows.
FII index-futures — longs / shorts (recent change)
- Net futures change (recent session): FIIs added net ~+859 contracts in index futures — modest net long tilt in derivatives, indicating cautious rebuilding of futures exposure rather than aggressive directional bets. That makes short-covering a plausible trigger for sharp intraday pops.
September-series OI (reference) — where the battle sits
- Call concentration (resistance): roughly 25,300 – 25,600 CE (heavy overhead supply).
- Put concentration (support): roughly 24,800 – 25,000 PE (nearby demand band).
These strikes define the near-term derivatives battleground: expect dips to find bids near ~24.8–25.0 and rallies to be tested into ~25.3–25.6.
News & sector cues this morning
- Global: renewed trade/headline risk and U.S. yield moves are keeping risk sentiment fragile.
- Domestic: DIIs continue to cushion moves; watch banking and metals for domestic leadership, and IT/exporters for headline-driven volatility.
- Market mood: cautious — size positions small, and treat breakouts with verification from futures flow.
U.S. events to watch tonight (IST)
- Initial jobless claims and any Fed-speaker comments are on the radar — both can move U.S. yields and the dollar, which will feed into Asian risk on the next day. Watch overnight yields for risk confirmation.
Practical levels & trading plan
- Immediate support: 25,000 – 24,950
- Primary floor: 24,700 – 24,650
- Immediate resistance: 25,300 – 25,400
- Stretch resistance: 25,600 – 25,800
Base case: range trade 25,000 – 25,300.
Bull trigger: sustained acceptance above 25,400 backed by visible FII futures short-covering → target 25,600 / 25,800.
Bear trigger: break & hold below 24,950 with rising foreign selling → target 24,700 / 24,450.