Topline view (tone)
Expect a constructive start — offshore sentiment has tilted more positive after visible short-covering by FPIs, which is supporting domestic indices early. That said, market breadth may stay selective; watch banks and large caps for leadership while exporters remain sensitive to currency and trade headlines.
GIFT Nifty (pre-open signal)
- Reading: GIFT Nifty is trading firm in the pre-open window and implying a positive open for the cash Nifty (a modest premium to yesterday’s close). Use the first 30 minutes of trade to confirm whether this premium translates into sustained buying.
Key Nifty technical levels (today)
- Immediate support: 25,900 – 25,800
- Primary support / floor: 25,600
- Immediate resistance: 26,100 – 26,200
- Stretch resistance: 26,400 – 26,600
View: The likely early intraday band is 25,800 – 26,200. If the market holds above 26,200 with rising volumes and futures flow, the 26.4–26.6k zone becomes the next target; failure below 25,800 risks a test of 25.6k.
FII / DII — latest (last full trading day)
- Offshore flows: FPIs have shown renewed buying sentiment driven by short covering and repositioning into the market; this has been a key driver of the early positive bias.
- Domestic flows: DIIs remain active and are providing support on dips (domestic absorption continues to be a stabiliser).
(As always, watch the exchange intraday prints for the exact ₹-crore session numbers; the flow mix—fresh FII participation + steady DIIs—is the key story today.)
FII Index-Futures positioning (what changed)
- Headline read: FIIs have been covering shorts and incrementally adding long exposure in recent sessions — the structure now shows less net short pressure and more hedged long participation. That dynamic supports rallies but keeps them vulnerable unless fresh, sustained long flows arrive.
October month OI — put & call battleground (reference)
- Call concentration (resistance): prominent strikes clustered in the 26,000 – 26,500 CE band.
- Put concentration (support): notable interest at 25,000 – 25,500 PE.
Implication: Expect supply into the mid-26k area and defensive put support near 25.0–25.5k — these are the options landmarks that will shape intraday reactions.
USD/INR — currency snapshot & impact
- Level: the rupee is trading in an improved/firming mode versus the recent past (early reads show the currency behaving firmer after the weekend), which is supportive for risk appetite and helps exporters’ sentiment stabilise. Keep an eye on 88.4–88.9 as the technical zones that will influence flows.
News & market movers this morning
- Positive driver: Short-covering by FPIs and some easing in trade-headline concerns are underpinning indices.
- Watchlist: Banks, large caps and cyclical financials for upside leadership; IT & exporters for currency/trade sensitivity; commodities on oil moves.
- Risk: Any re-escalation in geopolitical/trade headlines or a sudden spike in U.S. yields could reverse the early upside quickly.
U.S. / global events to watch (tonight)
- U.S. economic calendar: Keep an eye on the usual weekly prints and any Fed-speaker commentary this week — U.S. employment and inflation prints later this week will be the bigger directional inputs for yields and dollar moves, which in turn will influence India’s flow backdrop.
Quick trading playbook (practical)
- Base intraday band: 25,800 – 26,200.
- Bull trigger: sustained trade & acceptance above 26,200 with rising futures flow → target 26,400 / 26,600.
- Bear trigger: failure below 25,800 with rising volume/sell-flow → target 25,600 / 25,400.
- Tactics: Buy shallow dips into support with tight stops; trim into rallies near heavy call OI unless you see clear FII long flow. Watch real-time FII futures delta and USD/INR moves for fast confirmation or reversal.