Pre-Market Brief — India (Mon, 3 Nov 2025)
Quick top line
Mood: cautious / range-bound to start the week. The rupee remains under pressure and offshore flows are mixed — expect a muted open with selective sector moves and sensitivity to USD/INR and FII futures flow in the first hour.
GIFT Nifty (pre-open cue)
GIFT Nifty is signalling a modest positive tilt this morning around the 25,840–25,880 zone (indicative of a near-flat-to-mildly-up opening for Nifty). Use the first 30 minutes of trade to confirm follow-through.
Nifty — Key intraday levels (my desk pivots)
- Immediate support: 25,600 – 25,520
- Primary floor: 25,300
- Immediate resistance: 25,920 – 26,000
- Stretch resistance: 26,200 – 26,400
How I’ll trade it: treat 25.5–26.0k as today’s tactical band — buy shallow dips into the lower support band with tight stops, trim into rallies near the 26.0k wall unless futures delta confirms strong short-covering.
FII / DII — last trading day (cash)
- FII (cash): offshore flows were net sellers in the latest full session (continued month-to-date FII net selling pressure).
- DII (cash): domestic institutions remained net buyers, cushioning the market.
Practical takeaway: DIIs are still the stabiliser; sustained upside needs a return of consistent FII buying.
FII Index-Futures — longs & shorts (what changed recently)
- Recent reads show FIIs reshaping positions in the futures book — both long and short contracts were added/trimmed across sessions (position management rather than one-way directional pushing). This leaves the market sensitive to short-covering (would push a quick pop) or fresh short additions (would cap rallies). Monitor the FII futures delta in the opening hour for confirmation.
November options snapshot (month OI cues)
- Call concentration (resistance): clustering in the 26,000 – 26,500 CE area (overhead supply).
- Put concentration (support): notable interest around 25,000 – 25,300 PE (defensive base).
Implication: expect the operational battleground to sit roughly 25,000 – 26,500 for November positioning; option-chain activity around these strikes will steer intraday pivots.
USD/INR — currency read & impact
- Level: rupee is softer this morning near ≈ ₹88.7–88.9 / USD (still trading close to recent weak levels). A sustained move above ~89.0 would be a negative for risk names; any stabilisation below ~88.4 would help sentiment and exporters. Keep FX moves on your heat-map — they’ll steer IT/exporters and rate-sensitive sectors.
News / sector movers to watch at open
- Macro: continued rupee pressure and FII flow dynamics.
- Sectors: IT & exporters (currency & trade headlines), financials (flow dependent), metals/energy (commodity price reaction).
- Company-level: any fresh IPO or large block trades can digest intraday liquidity — size positions cautiously.
U.S. events tonight (what matters for us)
- Watch the U.S. economic calendar (inflation and Fed-related commentary remain the dominant risk drivers this week). Fed tone or surprise prints overnight will move U.S. yields, the dollar and then USD/INR — all feeding back into Indian markets tomorrow.
Quick trade checklist (my simple rules)
- Base intraday band: 25,520 – 25,960.
- Bull trigger: sustained hold above 26,000 with rising futures flow → target 26,200 / 26,400.
- Bear trigger: break & hold below 25,300 → target 25,000 / 24,750.
- Tactics: keep sizes light, buy shallow dips toward 25.5k with tight stops, trim into rallies near 26k unless you see clear FII short covering and OI expansion.