🌅 Market Mood — Opening Outlook
- Indian markets are expected to open flat to mildly positive, tracking mixed global cues.
- Early January positioning remains cautious, with traders watching currency movement and FII futures behavior closely.
- Key drivers today:
- USD/INR direction
- FII–DII flow balance
- January options OI shifts
- Bias: ⚖️ Range-bound with selective upside attempts
🟩 GIFT Nifty — Pre-Open Signal
- Trend: Slightly positive
- Indication: Flat to marginally higher opening for Nifty
- Early indication zone: 26,500 – 26,600
- Sentiment: 🟢 Stable, cautious optimism
📊 NIFTY — Support & Resistance Levels
🟢 Support Zones
- 26,400 – 26,350 → Immediate intraday support
- 26,150 → Strong buying base
- 25,900 → Trend-critical floor
🔴 Resistance Zones
- 26,650 – 26,700 → Near-term hurdle
- 26,900 – 27,000 → Strong overhead supply
- 27,200 → Stretch / profit-booking zone
📈 Expected Trading Range: 26,350 – 26,700
- Sustaining above 26,700 may trigger short-covering
- A slip below 26,350 could invite pressure toward 26,150
💰 Institutional Flow — Last Trading Day
🔻 FII (Foreign Institutional Investors)
- Net sellers in the cash market
- Positioning remains cautious at the start of the year
🟢 DII (Domestic Institutional Investors)
- Net buyers
- Continuing to absorb supply and stabilize the market
🧠 Takeaway:
Domestic liquidity is providing a strong cushion, while FIIs are still selective and reactive to global cues.
⚙️ FII Index Futures — Long & Short Positioning
- Long Contracts: Marginal additions (hedged / defensive longs)
- Short Contracts: Partial covering, but shorts remain active
- Net View:
- FIIs are neutral to mildly bullish
- Market remains sensitive to short-covering bursts above resistance
📌 First-hour futures price + OI action will be key.
🧭 January 2026 Options OI — Monthly Structure
📌 Call OI (Resistance Zones)
- 26,700 – 26,900 CE → Heavy call writing
- 27,000 CE → Psychological & structural ceiling
📌 Put OI (Support Zones)
- 26,200 PE → Strong put base
- 26,000 PE → Secondary support
- 25,800 PE → Monthly structural floor
🧩 Interpretation:
- Immediate battleground: 26,200 – 26,900
- Bulls defending 26,200
- Bears active near 26,800–26,900
- Break above 26,900 could lead to sharp upside
💱 USD/INR — Currency Update
- Current range: ~₹88.5 – 88.8 per USD
- Trend: Stable to mildly weak rupee
- Key levels:
- ⚠️ Above 89.20 → risk-off for equities
- 🟢 Below 88.30 → supportive for market sentiment
💡 Impact:
- Stable INR supports FII confidence
- Slight weakness benefits IT & exporter stocks
📰 News & Sector Focus
🏦 Banks & Financials
- Supported by domestic inflows
- Likely to anchor index movement
💻 IT & Exporters
- Benefiting from stable-to-weak rupee
- Watching U.S. tech cues
⚙️ Metals & Energy
- Tracking global commodity trends
- Stock-specific moves expected
🏭 Midcaps & Smallcaps
- Selective participation
- Avoid broad exposure early in the session
🌎 U.S. Market Events — Tonight (IST)
- Focus on U.S. macro data releases and Fed-related commentary
- Markets will watch:
- Inflation expectations
- Bond-yield movement
- Federal Reserve tone
🎯 Risk: Hawkish signals → pressure on INR & equities
🎯 Opportunity: Softer data → relief rally in EM markets
🎯 Intraday Trading Playbook
🟢 Bullish Scenario
- Trigger: Sustained move above 26,700
- Targets: 26,900 → 27,000
- Strategy: Buy dips, trail stops tightly
🔴 Bearish Scenario
- Trigger: Breakdown below 26,350
- Targets: 26,150 → 25,900
- Strategy: Short on pullbacks
⚪ Range-Bound Scenario
- Zone: 26,350 – 26,650
- Strategy:
- Sell calls near resistance
- Buy puts near support
- Keep position size light
🧾 Quick Snapshot Summary
| Segment | Bias | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| GIFT Nifty | 🟢 Mildly Positive | Flat-to-up open |
| FIIs | 🔻 Selling | Selective |
| DIIs | 🟢 Buying | Market support |
| USD/INR | 🟠 Stable | Below 89 |
| Nifty View | ⚪ Range | 26,350–26,700 |
| U.S. Cues | ⚖️ Mixed | Data-dependent |