🔥 Situation Update in the Iran–Israel Conflict
- Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities on June 12, 2025, targeting key leadership and infrastructure Iran retaliated with barrage of missiles and drones, including attacks near Tel Aviv, prompting heightened military alert
- Oil prices surged initially by 7 – 11%, hitting a one‑month high (Brent ~$78/barrel; WTI ~$74), and gold and the US dollar also rallied .
- Airspace in the region was suspended (Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Israel), disrupting regional and international aviation
📉 Market & Oil Response (Friday)
- U.S. stock markets plunged by approximately 1.1–1.8%:
- S&P 500: –1.13% (≈ –68 pts)
- Dow Jones: –1.79% (≈ –770 pts)
- Nasdaq: –1.3%
- Oil jumped ~7% (U.S. crude ~$73, Brent ~$74+)
- Sectors impacted:
- Gainers: Energy (Exxon +2.2%, Diamondback +3.7%), Defense (Lockheed, RTX, Northrop +3%+)
- Losers: Airlines (Delta –3.8%, United –4.4%, American –4.9%), Travel/Cruise (Carnival –4.9%)
📊 What to Expect on Monday
- Continued Volatility – Markets often react sharply when new geopolitical web flares, especially near the Strait of Hormuz
- Oil price pressure – Supply concerns may persist while OPEC+ (e.g., Saudi Arabia) increase output to stabilize prices .
- Safe‑haven inflows – Gold, the US dollar, and possibly Treasuries may strengthen in the face of risk .
- Fed policy watch – Elevated oil prices could stoke inflation concerns, influencing the Federal Reserve’s timing of interest‑rate changes
🗓 Outlook for Monday
- Asia, Europe & U.S. markets likely open lower, tracking continued Middle East tensions and high oil.
- Energy & Defense stocks may outperform near‑term; Airlines & travel remain vulnerable.
- Commodities: Watch oil, gold, USD, and bond yields closely.
In summary, the Iran‑Israel escalation has jolted markets, causing risk assets to slide and driving safe havens higher. Monday’s performance will hinge on whether tensions cool or further escalate, especially in the Strait region. Let me know if you’d like live updates when Asian markets open or a breakdown of sector strategies.