📈 Market tone (headline)
Expect a cautious start — global risk sentiment is mixed and early domestic futures are softer, so the bias is tentative until the first-hour flows clear up.
GIFT Nifty (pre-open read)
- Reading: trading lower (about -50 to -70 pts vs previous close), signalling a softer open for cash Nifty.
Quick USD/INR / currency note
- Spot: rupee trading in the low-88s this morning (moved around ~88.48–88.64 in recent sessions), showing modest recovery from the worst levels but still sensitive to global yields and exporter flows. RBI activity remains a key backstop.
Institutional flows — last full day (cash market)
- FII / FPI: offshore flows were mixed but showed pockets of selling in recent sessions; monitor intraday exchange prints for the exact session number.
- DII: domestic institutions continued to buy into dips and remain the main support for the market on local weakness.
FII activity in index futures — longs & shorts (what to watch)
- Short summary: FIIs have been reshaping positions — adding and trimming both longs and shorts in recent sessions rather than taking a one-way bet. That leaves the market sensitive to short-covering (which can fuel quick pops) or fresh short builds (which can cap rallies). Monitor the FII futures delta in the opening hour and early OI changes.
November options — OI map (monthly picture you asked for)
- Largest Call OI (resistance): clustered in the 26,000 – 26,200 CE area — heavy overhead supply to watch.
- Largest Put OI (support): concentrated around 25,000 – 25,200 PE — the primary put-defence band.
- implication: tactical battleground ~25,000 – 26,200; dips into ~25.0–25.2k are likely to draw put-defence, while rallies may slow near the 26.0–26.2k call wall.
Support & resistance — practical levels (today)
- Immediate support: 25,200 – 25,000
- Primary floor: 24,750
- Immediate resistance: 25,900 – 26,000
- Stretch resistance / target if momentum appears: 26,200 – 26,400
Trade idea: keep the size light into the open—buy very shallow dips toward 25.0k if puts hold; trim into rallies into 26.0–26.2k unless you see clear FII short-covering and rising OI.
News & market movers this morning
- Global risk headlines and U.S. yield moves are the main drivers; domestic focus remains on corporate flows and currency stability. Expect IT/exporters to price-sensitive to any rupee moves and financials to lead if breadth improves.
U.S. / global events to watch (tonight, IST)
- U.S. speaker calendar: Watch Fed/NY Fed commentary (scheduled speakers) — anything hawkish on inflation or rates will lift U.S. yields and pressure EM risk. Keep an eye on the U.S. economic calendar for any late prints that could swing yields/dollar tonight.
Quick checklist — what I’ll monitor live
- First-hour FII futures delta & exchange FII cash print — tells whether offshore flows confirm or cap the pre-open bias.
- USD/INR moves through 88.90 / 88.40 — rupee breakouts in either direction change sector risk fast.
- Option-chain OI changes at 25k puts and 26k calls — early unwinds or fresh builds give the best clues for intraday bias.