Good morning! It’s Monday, February 2, 2026. The dust is still settling from yesterday’s rare Sunday Special Budget Session, which proved to be a roller-coaster for Dalal Street. While the initial reaction to the Union Budget 2026 was a “sell-on-news” event (thanks to that pesky STT hike on derivatives), global cues are offering a much-needed olive branch this morning.
🌍 Global Sentiment & Gift Nifty
- Gift Nifty: Currently trading around 24,876, marking a recovery of about +90 points (+0.37%). This suggests Nifty is looking to reclaim some lost ground after Sunday’s late-session slide.
- Global Peers: Asian markets are mixed. The Nikkei 225 is holding steady, while the Hang Seng is under pressure.
- US Reaction: Wall Street futures are cautious as investors digest the weekend’s news of a new Fed Chair nominee and rising tensions in the Middle East.
💰 Institutional Flow (Cash Segment)
The institutional data from the last two sessions shows a shift in guard. While FIIs were net buyers on Friday, they turned cautious during the Sunday Budget session.
| Date | FII (Net Cr) | DII (Net Cr) | Sentiment |
| Jan 30 (Fri) | 🟢 +₹2,251.37 | 🔴 -₹601.03 | FII Optimism |
| Feb 01 (Sun) | 🔴 -₹588.34 | 🔴 -₹682.73 | Budget Jitters |
📈 Derivative Desk: FII Positioning
The FIIs are playing a “wait-and-watch” game with a bearish tilt in the index futures.
- FII Index Futures: Net short position increased on Friday by -₹1,353 Crore.
- Long-Short Ratio: Currently hovering around 22% Long vs 78% Short, indicating that the big boys are heavily hedged against further downside.
- FII Stock Futures: Interestingly, they were net buyers in stock futures (+₹1,510 Cr on Friday), suggesting they are picking individual winners while shorting the index.
🛡️ Technical War Room: Support & Resistance
NIFTY 50
The index is currently fighting to stay above its 200-day EMA of 25,150.
- Resistance 1: 25,000 (The “Big Boss” psychological hurdle)
- Resistance 2: 25,150 (200-DMA)
- Support 1: 24,600
- Support 2: 24,500 (Crucial demand zone)
BANK NIFTY
Banking continues to show relative strength but faces a wall near 60k.
- Resistance 1: 60,000
- Resistance 2: 60,400
- Support 1: 59,400
- Support 2: 59,000
⛓️ Option Chain Analysis (Feb 3 Expiry)
The Put-Call Ratio ($PCR$) has dropped to 0.68, signaling an “oversold” state.
- Call Walls: Highest Open Interest at 25,000 CE. If Nifty crosses this, expect a massive short-covering rally.
- Put Base: Strongest support is sitting at 24,500 PE.
📰 Top News & World Updates
- Budget 2026 Aftermath: The market is still digesting the hike in Securities Transaction Tax (STT) on F&O. While it’s a dampener for high-frequency traders, the sustained Capex of ₹12.4 lakh crore is a long-term win for Infra and Defence.
- The “Greenland” Shadow: While immediate annexation fears have cooled, trade friction between the US and EU remains a background noise that could spike volatility.
- Oil Surge: Brent crude has climbed to $71.89/bbl due to escalating US-Iran tensions. This is a direct headwind for the Indian Rupee and OMCs.
- Middle East: The Rafah crossing is expected to reopen today, providing a glimmer of diplomatic hope in an otherwise tense region.
📅 US Economics Tonight
Watch out for these high-impact events tonight that could dictate tomorrow’s opening:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan): Expected at 48.2 (Contraction territory).
- Fed Bostic Speech: Markets will look for clues on the Fed’s interest rate trajectory under the new nominee.
- Loan Officer Survey: A key indicator of credit health in the US banking system.
💵 Currency Corner
- USD/INR: The Rupee is feeling the heat of high oil prices and FII outflows, trading near its record low of ₹91.70. Any further move towards ₹92.00 could trigger RBI intervention.
Quick Summary: Expect a gap-up opening, but the real test is the 25,000 mark. If we fail to sustain above it, we might slide back into the 24,600-24,800 range. Focus on Defence and Infra stocks which got the budget boost, but stay cautious on high-beta names.