The Indian stock market is expected to kick off the week on a positive note, continuing the upward momentum seen at the end of last week. Strong global cues, particularly from the US, and a decisive technical breakout for Nifty are fueling this optimism.
Key Pointers for Today’s Opening:
- GIFT Nifty Signals Flat: GIFT Nifty futures are trading flat in early morning trade, around 25,780 – 25,790. This indicates a flat opening Nifty 50
- Strong Global Cues:
- US Markets Ended Week Higher: US markets concluded last week on a strong note, fueled by optimism around potential interest rate cuts and positive economic indicators. This provides a robust positive lead for Asian markets, including India.
- Reduced Geopolitical Tensions: A reported ceasefire between Israel and Iran has calmed global markets, contributing to a risk-on sentiment and reducing volatility.
- Asian Markets Positive: Most major Asian markets are trading in the green this morning, following the positive global sentiment.
Market Performance Last Trading Day (Friday, June 27, 2025):
- Strong Close: Indian benchmarks ended Friday on a high, extending gains for the fourth consecutive session and marking a significant breakout.
- Nifty 50: Rose 88.80 points (0.35%) to close at 25,637.80. It closed above the crucial 25,600 level, forming a bullish Marubozu candlestick pattern on the weekly timeframe, indicating strong momentum.
- BSE Sensex: Gained 303.03 points (0.36%) to close at 84,058.90.
- Bank Nifty: Surged 237.20 points (0.41%) to close at 57,443.90, making fresh highs and showing a bullish breakout above 56,000-57,000 resistance.
- Broad-based Buying: Market breadth was positive, with more advancing stocks than declining ones.
- Sectoral Performance: Banks (especially PSU banks), Auto, and Select Pharma stocks saw good buying, while IT stocks continued to see some profit booking.
- Broader Markets: Midcap and Smallcap indices also ended the week higher, suggesting healthy participation across the market.
- India VIX: The India VIX (volatility index) continued its decline, slipping by 1.6% to close at 12.39 on Friday, indicating reduced volatility expectations and bolstering investor confidence.
FII and DII Data (June 27, 2025):
- FII (Foreign Institutional Investors): Net buyers of ₹1,397.02 crore in the cash market. This is a positive shift after recent selling, though DIIs were net sellers on this day.
- DII (Domestic Institutional Investors): Net sellers of ₹588.93 crore in the cash market. This is an unusual reversal of their recent buying trend, but given FIIs were buyers, the overall market still moved up.
Nifty June Month OI (Open Interest) – Expiry was last week (June 26, 2025):
- For the July series, initial analysis suggests:
- Maximum Call Open Interest: Building up around 26,000 and 26,200 strikes, which will act as immediate resistance levels for the new series.
- Maximum Put Open Interest: Concentrated around 25,500 and 25,400 strikes, providing strong immediate support.
Support and Resistance for Nifty 50 (June 30, 2025):
- Immediate Support: 25,500 – 25,550 (previous strong resistance, now acting as crucial support)
- Stronger Support: 25,350 – 25,400
- Key Breakout Level: 25,200 – 25,300 (which Nifty decisively crossed last week)
- Immediate Resistance: 25,700 – 25,800
- Stronger Resistance: 25,900 – 26,000 (significant psychological and Call OI levels for July series)
- Further Resistance: 26,089 (technical level)
News and Updates (After Market Hours Friday & Early Morning Today):
- HDB Financial Services IPO (Latest Update): The IPO which opened on June 25 and closed on June 27, saw a moderate overall subscription by the end of its offer period. While initial days were subdued, it likely picked up on the last day due to QIB participation. Allotment is expected today, June 30, and listing on July 2.
- RBI MPC Outcome: The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting concluded on June 6, where the RBI maintained status quo on rates. The market has since digested this and focused on other triggers.
- Monsoon Progress: The progress of the monsoon across India remains a key positive, supporting the rural economy and agricultural sector.
- Company Specific News:
- Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL): Recommended as a buy by some analysts for today, citing a breakout of a key resistance level and an inverted head and shoulder pattern.
- ICICI Bank: Technical setup suggests fresh buying interest.
- Tata Chemical: Also recommended for a buy by some analysts.
- National Aluminium Co: Recommended for a buy by some analysts.
- Ahluwalia Contracts: Received an order worth ₹1,104 crore, supportive for its stock price.
- Karnataka Bank: Board accepted resignation of MD and ED, constitutes search committee for successors.
- Macroeconomic Commentary: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman stated that the Indian economy is poised to be the fastest-growing globally, with numbers potentially being even better than current estimates.
- Global Trade & Economy: Market will watch for any new developments on global trade deals, especially after the US President’s recent remarks about signing a deal with China and a potential deal with India.
Overall Outlook:
The Indian market is expected to open strong today, riding on positive global sentiment and solid domestic cues. The decisive breakout above key resistance levels last week indicates underlying bullishness. With the June expiry behind us, the focus shifts to the July series and its open interest dynamics. While FIIs were net buyers on Friday, their overall trend and Index Futures positioning will be crucial to watch. Investors should maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook, focusing on quality stocks and sector-specific opportunities, especially with a calmer geopolitical environment.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.