The Indian stock market is expected to open on a positive note today, signaling a potential recovery after a period of consolidation. This optimism is primarily driven by strong global cues and specific positive domestic developments, despite continued FII selling.
Key Pointers for Today’s Opening:
- GIFT Nifty Signals Gap-Up: GIFT Nifty futures are trading significantly higher, around 25,285 – 25,300 as of early morning IST. This indicates a potential gap-up opening of over 100 points for the Nifty 50, compared to its previous close of 25,244.75. This strong positive signal suggests bullish sentiment.
- Strong Global Cues:
- US Markets Closed Higher: US markets (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) rebounded strongly yesterday, fueled by a dovish tone from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which boosted hopes for earlier rate cuts (July or September). This led to a rally in IT stocks and overall positive sentiment.
- Geopolitical Relief: Reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran have calmed global markets, contributing to a risk-on sentiment.
- Asian Markets Mostly Positive: Most other Asian markets are trading in the green this morning, following the positive lead from the US.
Market Performance Yesterday (Wednesday, June 25, 2025):
- Positive Close: Indian benchmarks ended in the green yesterday, recouping some of the previous sessions’ losses.
- Nifty 50: Rose 200.40 points (0.80%) to close at 25,244.75, reaching its highest closing level so far in 2025. It decisively broke above the crucial 25,200 resistance.
- BSE Sensex: Gained 700.40 points (0.85%) to close at 82,755.51.
- Broad-based Rally: Over 40 Nifty stocks ended in the green, indicating a broad recovery.
- Sectoral Performance:
- Outperformers: Media, IT, Consumer Durables, and Auto sectors led the charge. IT stocks rallied on the back of Powell’s dovish comments.
- Underperformers: Only the Nifty Private Bank index ended in the red.
- Broader Markets: Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.44% and Smallcap 100 advanced 1.49%, marking their fourth straight day of gains.
FII and DII Data (June 25, 2025):
- FII (Foreign Institutional Investors): Net sellers of ₹2,427.74 crore in the cash market. This marks continued outflows from foreign investors.
- DII (Domestic Institutional Investors): Net buyers of ₹2,372.96 crore in the cash market. DIIs continue to provide strong support, absorbing the FII selling pressure.
FII Long/Short Contracts (Index Futures) – Latest Available Data (June 25, 2025):
- FII Index Futures (Net Position): Data from June 25, 2025, shows that FIIs were net short in Index Futures.
- While specific contract numbers for June 25th aren’t always immediately available in simple reports, the trend has been that FIIs have maintained a net short position in Index Futures for several sessions, indicating a cautious or bearish bias from them in the derivatives segment. The open interest in Index Futures would reflect their overall positioning.
Nifty June Month OI (Open Interest) – Expiry Today (June 26, 2025):
Since today is the June monthly expiry, the OI data is crucial:
- Maximum Call Open Interest:
- The highest Call OI is typically concentrated at 25,500 and 26,000 strike prices for the June expiry. This acts as a significant resistance zone.
- Maximum Put Open Interest:
- The highest Put OI for the June expiry is likely around 25,200 and 25,000 strike prices. These levels will act as strong immediate support.
- Nifty Futures: Nifty June Futures traded at a slight premium, indicating a positive bias. Open interest in Nifty June futures declined yesterday, which is typical on expiry day as positions are unwound.
Support and Resistance for Nifty 50 (June 26, 2025):
- Immediate Support: 25,100 – 25,150 (yesterday’s breakout level and now a key support)
- Stronger Support: 25,000 (psychological level and significant Put OI)
- Further Support: 24,800 – 24,820
- Immediate Resistance: 25,350 – 25,400
- Stronger Resistance: 25,500 (significant Call OI)
- Further Resistance: 25,600 – 25,700
News and Updates (After Market Hours yesterday & Early Morning Today):
- IT Stocks Rally Continues: After US Fed Chair Powell’s dovish comments, Indian IT majors like Infosys and Tech Mahindra are expected to continue their positive momentum.
- Small-Cap Stocks Extend Gains: The small-cap segment continued its strong run for the fourth consecutive session, signaling robust domestic optimism.
- NSE IPO Update: The National Stock Exchange (NSE) is expected to receive SEBI’s approval to file its IPO draft papers by July-end, potentially paving the way for a Q4 FY26 listing.
- HDB Financial Services IPO (Latest Update): HDBFS IPO, which opened yesterday, received a muted response on Day 1, subscribed only around 0.21 times. Retail investors subscribed 20%, NIIs 34%, and QIBs negligible (0.01%). Employee quota was fully booked. This will be closely watched today and tomorrow.
- Company Specific News (from yesterday’s close and after hours):
- Wheels India: Approved acquisition of 7.64 lakh shares of Axles India for ₹22.68 crore.
- Balaji Amines: Received consent to operate the manufacture of Isopropylamine; trial runs and commercial production to start shortly.
- RCF Chemicals: Department of Fertilizers denied request for EPMC or spot gas recognition, with a financial impact of nearly ₹204 crore.
- Federal Bank: Board to consider fundraising via debt, equity on June 30.
- BSE: SEBI imposed a penalty of ₹25 lakh for regulation violation.
- Tata Steel: Received show cause notice relating to alleged irregular availing of Input Tax Credit of ₹890 crore during FY19.
- FMCG and Autos: Will be under focus as their monthly sales data for June would start trickling in soon.
Overall Outlook:
The Indian market is set for a positive start today, driven by favorable global cues, a strong technical breakout for Nifty yesterday, and the underlying domestic optimism. However, with the June F&O expiry today, volatility is expected to be high. FII selling remains a concern, but robust DII buying continues to provide a strong counter. Traders will closely monitor the unwinding of positions and any fresh cues from global markets. The focus will remain on the major Put and Call OI levels as the expiry plays out