Market tone (headline)
Cautious and risk-off to start the day. Fresh U.S. tariff headlines and persistent foreign outflows are keeping pressure on export-linked sectors and the currency; expect a weak-to-flat open with selective selling in IT and pharma. Reuters
GIFT Nifty (pre-open)
GIFT Nifty is pointing to a soft open — futures indicating downside pressure versus the previous close. Treat the open as tentative and watch the first 30–45 minutes for flow confirmation.
Key levels — NIFTY 50 (today)
- Immediate support: 24,700 – 24,850
- Primary floor: 24,500 – 24,450
- Immediate resistance: 25,050 – 25,200
- Stiff resistance / short-term supply: 25,350 – 25,500
How I’ll trade it: expect an initial band of 24,700–25,200. Buy shallow dips into the support band with tight stops; trim into rallies as we approach the 25,200–25,350 call wall unless you see strong short-covering.
FII / DII (latest full day activity)
- FII (cash): net seller — ~₹4,995 crore (large outflow on the most recent session).
- DII (cash): net buyer — ~₹5,103 crore (domestic funds absorbing much of the foreign selling).
Net read: DIIs are acting as the support line while FIIs continue to rotate out — that keeps upside capped and raises the odds of volatile, one-day reversals.
FII activity in Index Futures (positioning note)
- Recent clearing-level data shows FIIs reshaping positions in the futures market — trimming outright shorts and adjusting exposure rather than aggressively adding directional longs. Practically, that means rallies can run on short-covering, but sustained upside needs fresh long buying.
September options — OI battleground (strategic strikes)
- Call concentration (resistance): roughly 25,300 – 25,500 CE (major overhead supply).
- Put concentration (support): roughly 24,900 – 25,100 PE (nearby defensive band).
Implication: the tactical battleground is ~24,900 – 25,400. Dips toward 24.9–25.0 should find put-defence; rallies are likely to slow into the 25.3–25.5 area.
USD/INR — currency snapshot
- Spot: the rupee is trading weaker this morning around ~₹88.75–88.80 per USD (softening from recent levels). A sustained move above ~88.90–89.00 would be a bearish signal for sentiment and could amplify selling in importers and rate-sensitive names; a move back below ~88.40 would relieve pressure on exporters.
News & movers to watch this morning
- Tariff headlines (U.S. duties and related trade moves) are the key overhang for pharma and some manufacturing exporters.
- Visa / immigration fee changes and trade-policy commentary continue to create headline risk for IT names.
- Domestic: look for any large block trades, corporate announcements or RBI/FX desk commentary that might blunt the currency move.
U.S. / global events to watch (tonight / overnight IST)
- U.S. macro prints and any Fed-speaker comments will steer global yields and the dollar — if U.S. data keeps yields bid, expect pressure on Indian equities and the rupee overnight. Monitor Treasury yields and the dollar index for immediate clues.
Quick tactical checklist (my playbook)
- Base intraday band: 24,700 – 25,200.
- Bull trigger: sustained reclamation and hold above 25,200–25,300 with visible futures short-covering → target 25,350 / 25,500.
- Bear trigger: break and hold below 24,700 → target 24,500 / 24,300.
- Execution: buy small, nimble dips toward 24.7k with tight stops; trim into rallies and avoid chasing breakouts into heavy call OI without confirmation from FII futures delta.