π Global Markets & GIFT Nifty
- GIFT Nifty futures are up +80 points, indicating a positive open for Nifty around 24,678β24,680, slightly above Fridayβs close of 24,565.
- Global sentiment is recovering after a correction last week. Weak U.S. employment data boosted expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, making emerging markets like India more attractive.
π Nifty Technical Levels for the Open
| Index | Support Zone | Resistance Zone |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,500 β 24,600 | 24,800 β 25,000 |
| Bank Nifty | 55,500 β 56,000 | 56,500 β 57,200 |
- Analysts highlight 24,500 as a key critical support; breach could trigger deeper selling.
- Resistance is expected between 24,800 and 25,000, which may cap any early rally.
π Institutional Flow Summary β 1 August 2025
- FIIs net sold βΉ3,366 crore in the cash equity segment in July; average flows continue to remain negative.
- DIIs were net buyers to the tune of βΉ3,187 crore, providing needed cushion and support.
π§Ύ FII Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs currently carry a strong net short bias, accounting for ~85% of index futures exposure, with minimal long positions.
- There is no visible unwinding of short positions, underpinning the cautious outlook for the near term.
π Nifty August Weekβ1 Options: Key OI Levels
- High Put OI: concentrated around 24,600β24,700
- High Call OI: around 24,800β24,900
- Put/Call Ratio (PCR): ~1.09, pointing to cautious positioning ahead of the new August contracts.
These levels frame todayβs likely trading band as 24,600β25,000.
π° Key News & Corporate Updates
- ITC beat Q1 earnings estimates, driven by strong cigarette and rural packaged-food sales.
- Tata Power missed expectations as electricity demand weakened.
- MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange) posted strong growth and announced a 1:5 stock split, boosting investor sentiment.
- Overall, export-linked sectors remain under pressure due to trade tariff fears.
π Market Catalyst Tonight β U.S. Economic Data & Fed
Watch for:
- Fed policy decision and Chair commentary
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Existing Home Sales (July)
- Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
A dovish tone or weak data may trigger renewed risk-taking; hawkish cues could reignite caution.
π Summary & Trading Strategy
| Focus Area | Strategy Insight |
|---|---|
| Open Bias | Mildly positive β global supportive tone |
| Key Technical Range | 24,500β25,000 ΟΞΉvotal zone |
| Institutional Flow | FIIs selling; DIIs supporting |
| Futures Sentiment | Bearish tilt; net short positioning remains intact |
| Options Sentiment | PCR > 1 β defensive posture |
| Sector Focus | Watch ITC, MCX, Tata Power; sensitivities in pharma and exporters |
Trading Plan:
- Buy dips near 24,600β24,650 with stop-loss ~24,550; target 24,800β24,900.
- Short near resistance (~24,900β25,000) if momentum stalls or global cues turn negative.
- Keep an eye on export-linked stocks and Q1 earnings triggers in consumer, energy, and commodity sectors.