Topline view
Market bias is muted-to-cautious this morning. Early global cues are mixed, USD/INR is trading softer vs recent extremes and FIIs were net sellers in the latest session while DIIs absorbed most of the flow — that mix supports range trading with selective sector moves.
GIFT Nifty (pre-open)
GIFT Nifty is indicating a near-flat start around the ~25,980–26,000 area — so expect Nifty to open close to yesterday’s close with limited initial gap.
Quick USD/INR read (impact)
The rupee is trading near ~88.6–88.8 / USD in early reads; that level keeps exporters/IT names sensitive while importers and rate-sensitive sectors watch for further pressure. A sustained move above ~89.0 would be a clear negative for sentiment; moves back below ~88.4 would provide relief.
FII / DII snapshot (last full trading day — 12 Nov 2025)
- FII (cash): net seller ≈ ₹1,750 crore (broad sell pressure on the day).
- DII (cash): net buyer ≈ ₹5,127 crore (domestic institutions absorbed most selling).
Takeaway: DIIs are the bid under the market; FIIs remain the swing factor for directional follow-through.
FII activity in index futures (positioning note)
FIIs have been reshaping/hedging positions in the futures book (open interest has risen, indicating fresh participation) — the practical read is: short-covering can trigger sharp pops, but fresh short additions will cap rallies unless offshore buying continues. Watch the real-time futures delta in the first 30–60 minutes.
November options (month) — OI battleground (what to watch)
- Largest Call interest (resistance): clustered around the 26,000 CE area.
- Largest Put interest (support): clustered around the 25,000 PE area.
Implication: near-term tactical corridor is roughly 25,000 – 26,000; dips toward 25.0k should find put defence while rallies will likely meet call supply near 26.0k unless short-covering accelerates.
Key Nifty levels for the day (practical pivots)
- Immediate support: 25,800 – 25,700
- Deeper support / floor: 25,500
- Immediate resistance: 26,050 – 26,100
- Stretch resistance: 26,300 – 26,500
Tactical view: Expect range trading into the open: buy shallow dips into the 25.7–25.8k band with tight stops, trim into strength near 26.0k, and re-assess if FII futures delta shows clear buying/selling.
News & sector movers this morning
- Trade- and tariff-related headlines remain in play for exporters and IT. Domestic financials and banks are likely to lead on flow-driven days, while midcaps remain vulnerable to FII directional moves. Watch for earnings updates and any large block trades that absorb liquidity.
U.S. / global events to watch (tonight, IST)
- Monitor overnight U.S. economic prints and any Fed-speaker comments — those will drive U.S. yields and the dollar, which in turn will feed into USD/INR and Asian flows overnight. Any surprise on U.S. inflation or yields can flip intraday risk quickly.
Quick trade plan
- Base case: range trade 25,700 – 26,050.
- Bull trigger: sustained move & hold above 26,100 with visible futures short-covering → target 26,300 / 26,500.
- Bear trigger: break & hold below 25,700 with rising offshore selling → target 25,500 / 25,300.
- Execution: keep sizes moderate, use real-time FII futures delta + option-chain shifts for confirmation; prefer buy-the-dip only into strong put-OI support (25.0k) and fade rallies into heavy call OI unless proven otherwise.