Market tone
Cautious and a touch risk-off to start the week. Global bond yields have bounced and the dollar is firmer, which is keeping flows cautious into India. Expect a tentative open with selective sector moves rather than a broad rush.
GIFT Nifty (pre-open)
Trading roughly in the 25,380 – 25,420 band in pre-open reads — implying a mildly positive but tentative start for the cash session.
Nifty — Key levels for today
- Immediate support: 25,000 – 24,950
- Primary floor: 24,750
- Immediate resistance: 25,300 – 25,400
- Stretch resistance: 25,600 – 25,800
View: Core operating band today is likely 25,000–25,400. A clean, sustained break above 25,400 would open room toward 25,600; failure under 24,950 could drag the index to the 24,700 area.
Institutional flows — last full trading day (most recent close)
- FII (cash): modest net buy ~₹350–₹400 crore (participation present but cautious)
- DII (cash): net buy ~₹3,000–₹3,500 crore (domestic funds remain active buyers)
Takeaway: Domestic institutional bid continues to provide a floor while FIIs are participating selectively — that mix supports range trading with limited directional conviction.
FII index-futures activity (recent sessions & yesterday)
- Recent pattern: FIIs have been trimming outright short exposure and reshaping positions — net short exposure has reduced versus the peak, and there have been modest net long additions in some sessions.
- Practical read: markets are sensitive to short-covering; if FIIs accelerate covering into the open we could see quick spikes, but if they pause the upside will meet option-chain resistance.
FII Long / Short (yesterday’s change — practical numbers)
- Long contracts added (net, recent session): ~ +1,000 – +1,400 contracts (net long bias added in recent sessions)
- Short contracts added (net, recent session): smaller / selective — overall positioning tilted to reduce net shorts
(Net effect = modest net long tilt from FIIs but with hedges still in place.)
September options (OI map) — battleground strikes
- Heaviest Call OI (resistance): 25,300 – 25,500 CE (major overhead supply)
- Heaviest Put OI (support): 24,800 – 25,000 PE (primary demand zone)
Implication: Operational corridor sits roughly 24,800 – 25,500; expect put support to prop dips near 24.8–25.0 and call supply to cap rallies into the 25.3–25.5k zone.
USD/INR — currency moves
- USD/INR is trading weaker this morning — roughly ~88.10–88.25 in the pre-open window (rupee slightly softer vs prior close).
- What it means: A sustained move above 88.30 would increase pressure on import-sensitive and rate-sensitive names; a dip below 88.00 would be supportive for markets and exporters.
News & sector cues this morning
- Macro & flows: Dollar strength and a rebound in U.S. yields are the main drags on sentiment.
- Event risk: Trade/visa headlines (global policy noise) and any fresh Fed commentary can move export/IT names and the currency quickly.
- Sectors to watch: Financials and domestic cyclicals for leadership; IT and exporters for volatility on policy/visa chatter; commodities/energy on oil moves.
U.S. economic / event risk tonight (what to watch)
- Fed speaker comments and short-dated U.S. data are on the radar this evening — any hawkish tilt in commentary or surprising moves in U.S. yields will feed through to Asian trade and the INR overnight.
- Keep an eye on the calendar this week for larger prints (inflation and manufacturing data) that will set the tone beyond today.
Trading playbook — actionable rules
- Base intraday range: 25,000 – 25,400.
- Bull trigger: Sustained move above 25,400 on visible futures short-covering → target 25,600 / 25,800.
- Bear trigger: Break and hold under 24,950 → target 24,750 / 24,500.
- Tactics: Buy shallow dips into 25,000 with tight stops; trim into rallies near 25,300–25,400 unless you see clear FII short-covering and OI confirmation. Watch USD/INR moves and early FII futures delta for fast bias shifts.