Market Outlook & Technical Setup
- Pre-market sentiment: Indian markets are bracing for a weaker start. Nifty futures are trading around 24,665, signaling a negative open compared to yesterday’s close of 24,712
- GIFT Nifty is under pressure too, with futures dipping roughly 53 points
- Support-Resistance structure:
- Short-term resistance appears to lie in the 24,700–24,800 range—mirroring recent sharper declines.
- Key support zones are identified between 24,500–24,600, especially aligned with elevated Put open interest in recent July series
FII & DII Summary (Latest Available)
- On August 26, FIIs were net sellers of approximately ₹6,516 crore in the cash segment, while DIIs were net buyers around ₹7,060 crore
- Year-to-date or monthly aggregated figures (as of August 26): FII gross purchases were ₹240,655 crore, while gross sales were ₹275,388 crore, resulting in a net outflow of around ₹34,734 crore; DIIs posted gross buys of ₹255,495 crore against sales of ₹179,074 crore—netting +₹76,421 crore
GIFT Nifty (SGX Nifty) Snap
- Current level: ~24,680, up ~56 points (+0.23%) on the day
- Range today: Low ~24,636; High ~24,681; Open ~24,649; Previous close ~24,623
- Inference: Slightly positive overnight performance—though domestic FII outflows and tariffs could override these gains.
FII Long vs. Short Positions in Index Futures
- According to data from early August, FIIs held around 10 short positions for every long in index futures, with a net short position exceeding 167,000 contracts, indicating a markedly bearish sentiment .
July Month Open Interest – Nifty Options
- Calls (Resistance): Heaviest open interest at the 25,000 strike, followed by 25,200—a clear resistance zone
- Puts (Support): Strong Put OI concentration at 24,500, with a secondary cluster at 24,800—these could act as support
- These OI patterns suggest a likely trading corridor of 24,500–25,000 during the July expiry.
News & Key Updates
- Tariff shock: U.S. has imposed additional punitive 25% tariffs, raising total duties on some Indian exports to 50%, hitting investor sentiment
- As a result, markets are expected to open in the red. Export-heavy sectors—textiles, gems & jewelry, chemicals, seafood, auto components—are under pressure.
- This downturn follows Monday’s steepest one-day decline in three months for both Nifty and Sensex
- Export strategy pivot: Former Ambassador Harsh Shringla suggests India is pivoting export focus away from the U.S. toward alternative markets
- Expiry outlook: Some analysts point to a 24,500–25,000 range backed by options data for today’s expiry action
U.S. Economic Calendar – Tonight
According to the latest global economic calendar:
- Thursday, August 28 (U.S. overnight/Indian morning):
- Q2 GDP (Final) with initial forecast around 3.1%.
- Weekly Jobless Claims, expected around 231,000.
- Pending Home Sales data.
- Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller
These releases are likely to influence global risk sentiment and, by extension, the Indian index open later today.
Quick Summary Table
| Segment | Highlights |
|---|---|
| Pre-market levels | Nifty futures ~24,665; GIFT Nifty ~24,680 |
| Support Zone | 24,500–24,600 |
| Resistance Zone | 24,700–24,800; 25,000 (Call OI) |
| FII/DII (Aug 26, Cash) | FII: Net -₹6,516 cr; DII: Net +₹7,060 cr |
| FII Sentiment (Index Futures) | Heavily short positioned; bearish bias |
| July OI Highlights | Call OI at 25,000/25,200; Put OI at 24,500/24,800 |
| Macro Headline | U.S. tariff hike to 50%, export sectors hit |
| U.S. Upcoming Events | Q2 GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Fed speech |
Let me know if you’d like deeper dives into any of these—for example, real-time pivot levels, sector specifics, or customized charts. And here’s a quick digest of key news: