📈 Pre-Market Brief — India (Thu, 9 Oct 2025)
Topline view
Expect a muted, cautiously positive open. Early cues show a small positive bias but the market remains sensitive to currency moves and offshore flows. Trade light until the first-hour futures flow or a clear macro signal gives conviction.
GIFT Nifty (pre-open)
Trading modestly positive — roughly +40 to +70 points versus yesterday’s close — suggesting a slightly constructive start for Nifty cash.
USD/INR — currency snapshot
- Level: Rupee trading around ~₹88.7 – 88.8 / USD this morning (a touch soft but showing pockets of RBI defence).
- Risk levels: a sustained move above ~89.00 would be bearish for sentiment; a drop back under ~88.40–88.50 would relieve pressure for exporters and rate-sensitive names.
Institutional flows — last trading day (most recent full session)
- FII (cash): small net buy ~₹80–100 crore (modest offshore participation).
- DII (cash): net buy ~₹300–350 crore (domestic funds continuing to support prices).
Takeaway: DIIs remain the steady bid while FIIs are participating but cautious — flows are steady-not-directional.
FII index-futures activity — longs & shorts (recent read)
- Long contracts added (approx): several thousand contracts added (modest fresh long additions).
- Short contracts added (approx): some selective short / hedge additions as well.
Net read: Position-reshaping — FIIs added futures exposure while keeping hedges; short-covering can still fuel quick intraday pops, but fresh short builds will cap rallies.
September-series options (reference OI map)
- Prominent Call OI (resistance): ~25,300 – 25,600 CE — overhead supply zone.
- Prominent Put OI (support): ~24,800 – 25,000 PE — nearby demand base.
Implication: Tactical battleground sits around 24,800 – 25,600 with intraday pivots at 25,000 (pivot), 24,800 (support), 25,300–25,500 (resistance).
News & market movers this morning
- Domestic: RBI defence in FX is visible but the currency remains a key worry; banking and metal names are the main domestic supports.
- Global: traders are watching U.S. yield moves and any Fed-speaker comments later today — these will steer flows into and out of India.
- Sectors to watch: IT/exporters (sensitive to currency and trade headlines), banks & metals (domestic flow leaders).
U.S. / global events to watch (tonight)
- Key items: U.S. initial jobless claims and Fed-speaker comments — any hawkish surprise on yields or dovish relief will move the dollar and global flows, affecting India overnight.
Key levels & trading playbook (practical)
- Immediate support: 24,800 – 24,900
- Primary floor: 24,600 – 24,500
- Immediate resistance: 25,200 – 25,300
- Stretch resistance: 25,500 – 25,700
Base case: Range trade 24,800 – 25,300.
Bull trigger: Sustained acceptance above 25,300 with visible futures short-covering → targets 25,500 / 25,700.
Bear trigger: Break & hold below 24,800 with accelerating futures selling → targets 24,600 / 24,400.
Tactics: keep intraday sizes light; buy shallow dips into 24.8–24.9k with tight stops; trim into rallies near 25.2–25.5k unless confirmed by strong FII futures flows and OI expansion. Watch USD/INR moves and the first-hour FII futures delta for quick bias confirmation.