Market tone
Cautious and risk-aware. The market is watching currency moves and recent foreign outflows closely — expect a muted, range-biased start with pockets of volatility in export/IT and rate-sensitive names.
GIFT Nifty (pre-open read)
Trading mixed to slightly soft in the pre-open window, implying a flat-to-mildly negative start for the cash indices this morning.
Nifty — key technical levels (today)
- Immediate support: 24,900 – 24,850
- Primary floor: 24,650 – 24,600
- Immediate resistance: 25,150 – 25,200
- Stretch resistance: 25,400 – 25,600
View: Likely intraday band: 24,850 – 25,200. A confident reclaim of 25,200 with follow-through would open room to 25,400; failure below 24,850 exposes the 24,600 zone.
FII / DII — last trading day (most recent full day)
- FII (cash): net sell (strong) — approx. ₹3,500 crore (foreign selling persisted)
- DII (cash): net buy — approx. ₹2,500–₹3,000 crore (domestic funds absorbing flows)
Takeaway: DIIs remain the steady bid; FIIs are cautious/withdrawing, which keeps upside capped and raises the risk of sharper intraday moves if sentiment flips.
USD/INR — currency moves this morning
- USD/INR trading weaker this morning in the ~₹88.80 – 89.10 band (rough estimate).
- Implication: A sustained move above 89.10–89.20 would increase pressure on importers and rate-sensitive sectors; a dip below 88.60–88.50 would be a positive for sentiment and exporters.
FII Index-Futures — long/short activity (latest reads)
- Net picture (approx): FIIs have been reducing naked short exposure in recent sessions and have engaged in mixed activity — modest long additions in selective pockets while keeping hedges via some short builds.
- Practical read: The headline is position reshaping/hedged participation, not aggressive directional expansion. Watch early futures delta for whether short-covering accelerates or stalls.
September options (OI) — contact map (nearby strikes)
- Heaviest Call OI (resistance zone): 25,300 – 25,600 CE (major overhead supply)
- Heaviest Put OI (support zone): 24,700 – 25,000 PE (nearby support)
Implication: The technical battleground for the month sits roughly 24,700 – 25,600; intraday focus will be on defending 24.7–25.0 and testing the call wall into 25.3–25.6.
News & market movers this morning
- Currency weakness and recent foreign selling are the dominant drags.
- IT and export-linked names will be price-sensitive to any fresh trade/visa headlines or currency swings.
- Financials and domestic cyclicals may lead any bounce if DIIs continue to step in.
U.S. / global events to watch (tonight / overnight IST)
- Key U.S. prints / speeches remain the main risk: look for inflation gauges (PCE / CPI variants where scheduled), personal spending data and any Fed-speaker commentary. Surprises on inflation or Fed tone will move yields, the dollar and EM flows into the close and across Asia.
Tactical playbook — what to do today
- Base case: trade the range 24,850 – 25,200.
- Bull trigger: sustained move above 25,200 with visible futures short-covering → targets 25,350 / 25,600.
- Bear trigger: break & hold below 24,850 → targets 24,650 / 24,400.
- Execution: buy shallow dips into 24,850–24,900 with tight stops; trim into rallies into 25,150–25,200 unless you see clear FII short-covering and rising OI. Keep stops and position size small—volatility from currency + FII flows can make intraday moves sharp.