1. Global & GIFT Nifty Overview
- GIFT Nifty futures are down about 40 points, projecting a flat to slightly negative start at ~24,760 for the Nifty 50.
- The decline follows renewed trade tensions as U.S. reiterated threats of a 25% tariff on Indian exports, which has dampened investor confidence.
- U.S. macro data tonight—especially PMIs, home sales, and jobless claims—will likely influence sentiment further.
2. Technical Levels – Support & Resistance
| Index | Support Zone | Resistance Zone |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,600 – 24,700 | 24,800 – 24,900 |
| Bank Nifty | 55,500 – 56,000 | 56,500 – 57,000 |
- Sustained fall below 24,600 could open fresh downside, while a break above 24,800–24,900 may attract short-covering.
3. Institutional Flow – 4 August 2025
| Segment | FII Net Flow (₹ Cr) | DII Net Flow (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | –2,567 | +4,386 |
- FIIs were net sellers in equities, while DIIs absorbed much of the selling pressure, providing crucial support.
4. FII Positioning in Index Futures
- FIIs continue to maintain a heavy net short bias, with approximately 85% of their futures exposure in short positions and only about 15% in longs.
- No notable unwinding of shorts is observed, indicating continued cautious or bearish sentiment.
5. August Week‑1 Options — Put & Call OI Highlights
- Key High Put OI Strikes: 24,600–24,700
- Key High Call OI Strikes: 24,800–24,900
- Put/Call Ratio (PCR): ~1.09 → reflects defensive positioning ahead of expiry.
These structures suggest the Nifty is likely to trade within the 24,600–24,900 band today.
6. Market News & Stock Triggers
- Ongoing U.S. tariff threats remain a key risk for export-linked sectors.
- Earnings in focus for today include:
- Bharti Airtel
- Adani Ports
- Prestige Estates
- Bharti Hexacom
- Lupin
These results could drive selective stock moves amid broader caution.
7. U.S. Economic Events to Watch (Tonight, IST)
- PMI (Services & Manufacturing)
- Existing Home Sales
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Fed policy commentary
A dovish tone or weak data could lift risk sentiment; hawkish remarks may reinforce defensive posturing.
8. Summary & Strategy
| Focus Area | Strategy Insight |
|---|---|
| Bias at Open | Mildly negative based on GIFT Nifty cue |
| Key Levels | 24,600 (support), 24,800–24,900 (resistance) |
| FII Outlook | Short-heavy, no unwinding in futures |
| DII Role | Strong buyer offsetting FII pressure |
| Options Sentiment | PCR > 1 → cautious bearish posture |
| Stocks to Watch | Bharti Airtel, Lupin, Adani Ports, Prestige |
| Macro Trigger | U.S. data and Fed tone tonight key for direction |
❏ Trade Plan
- Buy around 24,650 with SL below 24,600; target 24,800–24,900
- Short near 24,900–25,000 if resistance holds firmly
- Monitor earnings and export-linked stocks for stock-specific opportunities