The Indian stock market is poised for a cautiously positive to flat opening today. While global markets closed with strength, profit booking in Indian equities on Monday and the ongoing analysis of FII and DII activity will influence early trade.
Key Pointers for Today’s Opening:
- GIFT Nifty Position: GIFT Nifty futures are trading around 25,622 – 25,632 in early morning trade (as of 2:47 AM IST).
- Compared to Nifty Spot (Monday’s close): Nifty 50 spot closed at 25,517.05 on Monday. This suggests a potential gap-up opening of approximately 105-115 points for the Nifty 50 spot index at market open.
- Compared to Nifty July Futures (Monday’s close): Nifty July 2025 futures closed at 25,632.50 on Monday. Comparing today’s GIFT Nifty (around 25,622-25,632) to Monday’s Nifty July Futures close indicates a flat to marginally negative opening for the July futures contract itself. This suggests that while spot may gap up, the futures have already factored in a significant portion of the positive sentiment.
- Mixed Global Cues:
- US Markets Closed Higher: US markets (S&P 500, Nasdaq) continued their upward trajectory, closing higher on Monday. This provides a positive lead.
- Asian Markets Mixed: Other major Asian markets are showing mixed trends this morning, reflecting some cautiousness.
- Crude Oil: Brent crude is trading around $67.65 per barrel, reflecting some stability in global commodity markets.
Market Performance Last Trading Day (Monday, June 30, 2025):
- Profit Booking & Decline: Indian benchmarks snapped their four-day gaining streak and closed lower on Monday due to profit booking.
- Nifty 50: Ended down 120.75 points (0.47%) at 25,517.05. It failed to sustain above the 25,600 mark.
- BSE Sensex: Closed 452.44 points (0.54%) down at 83,606.46.
- Bank Nifty: Opened at a record high but came off intraday highs to close marginally lower at 57,401.00.
- Nifty IT Index: Underperformed, slipping 0.34% due to weakness in global tech stocks.
- Broader Markets Showed Strength: In contrast to the frontline indices, the S&P BSE SmallCap index rose sharply (0.67%), indicating renewed investor interest in small-cap counters.
- India VIX: The volatility index was up by 3.2% to 12.79, signaling increased caution.
FII and DII Data (June 30, 2025):
- FII (Foreign Institutional Investors): Net sellers of ₹831.50 crore in the cash market. FIIs have resumed selling after a brief buying period on Friday.
- DII (Domestic Institutional Investors): Net buyers of ₹3,497.44 crore in the cash market. DIIs continued to provide robust support, absorbing the FII outflows.
FII Long Contracts (Index Futures) and Short Contracts (June 30, 2025):
- FII Index Futures: On June 30, 2025, FIIs were net sellers in Index Futures, reducing their net long positions or adding to shorts.
- FII Index Futures (Net Value): -₹902.85 crore.
- This indicates a cautious or slightly bearish stance from FIIs in the derivatives segment for the fresh July series.
July Month OI (Open Interest) – Expiry July 31, 2025:
- As of June 30, 2025, for the July 3, 2025 (weekly) and July 31, 2025 (monthly) expiries:
- Maximum Call Open Interest (Weekly 03 JUL): Concentrations are observed at 25,600, 25,700 and 26,000 strike prices, which will act as immediate resistance levels.
- Maximum Put Open Interest (Weekly 03 JUL): Strong concentrations are at 25,500 and 25,400 strike prices, indicating immediate support levels.
- For the full July 31st monthly series, early OI is building. Key Call OI at 26,000 and key Put OI at 25,500 will be crucial to monitor as the series progresses.
Support and Resistance for Nifty 50 (July 1, 2025):
- Immediate Support: 25,470 – 25,500 (Yesterday’s low and a critical short-term support)
- Stronger Support: 25,375 – 25,400
- Key Pivotal Support: 25,300
- Immediate Resistance: 25,600 (A key psychological level where Nifty failed to sustain yesterday, and where Call OI for weekly expiry is high)
- Stronger Resistance: 25,700 – 25,740 (Previous gap resistance)
- Further Resistance: 25,910 – 26,000 (Significant Call OI for monthly expiry)
News and Updates (After Market Hours Monday & Early Morning Today):
- HDB Financial Services IPO Allotment: Allotment for the HDB Financial Services IPO (closed June 27) is expected to be finalized today, July 1. Investors will be keen to check their allotment status.
- Monsoon Progress: The monsoon’s continued progress across India remains a positive fundamental for the rural economy and agricultural sector.
- Company Specific News:
- Torrent Pharmaceuticals: News broke after market hours yesterday that Torrent Pharma is set to acquire a controlling stake in JB Chemicals from KKR for ₹25,689 crore. This is a significant M&A deal in the pharma sector and will be a major stock driver for both companies.
- State Bank of India (SBI): Was among the leading gainers yesterday, driven by optimism in public sector banks amid government policy signals.
- Shriram Finance, Jio Financial Services, HDFC Life, Bharat Electronics: Were also in focus yesterday due to positive developments or investor sentiment.
- Tata Consumer Products, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Adani Enterprises, Hero MotoCorp: Faced selling pressure yesterday due to various factors including broader sector weakness, technical levels, and company-specific news (like Adani’s bond issue announcement and Hero MotoCorp’s index exclusion speculation).
- Indian Rupee: The Indian rupee unit depreciated by 26 paise to close at 85.75 against the US dollar yesterday, posting its second consecutive monthly decline. This will be a factor for import-heavy sectors.
Overall Outlook:
The Indian market is expected to open with a gap-up today, primarily due to positive global momentum. However, the subsequent trading action will be crucial. After yesterday’s profit booking and FIIs turning net sellers in both cash and index futures, the market could see attempts to consolidate or a reversal of the initial gains. Traders should watch the Nifty’s ability to sustain above key levels, particularly 25,500-25,600. The major news for the day is the Torrent Pharma-JB Chemicals deal, which will drive pharma stocks.
The renewed FII selling in index futures suggests caution from foreign participants, which needs to be carefully monitored against strong DII buying. Volatility is expected to remain a factor as the July series begins.