📉 Market backdrop & tone
The mood is cautious, with downside pressure from renewed foreign selling, negative global cues, and headwinds in the currency. Expect markets to open weak, and the bias today is toward a lower high / test of support zones unless there’s strong short covering.
💸 USD/INR & currency context
- The rupee is under fresh pressure, sitting near ₹88.80 to the dollar — a new all-time low range.
- Weakness is driven by large FII outflows, concerns over U.S. visa hikes impacting IT exports, and general external vulnerability.
- A move above ₹88.90 would worsen sentiment for equities; a corrective dip toward ₹88.50 could lend relief to exporters.
📊 FII / DII (most recent full trading day)
- FII (cash): net sell ≈ ₹3,551 crore in the session (strong foreign exit)
- DII (cash): net buy ≈ ₹2,670 crore (domestic bids supporting)
- Month-to-date, FIIs remain deep net sellers, while DIIs are absorbing the flow.
- In the derivatives/FO segment, FIIs continue to trim short bets and reposition cautiously — not aggressively betting long, but calibrating their stance.
🎯 Support & Resistance levels (Nifty)
- Support zones: 25,000 – 24,950 (first), 24,750 (secondary)
- Resistance zones: 25,300 – 25,400, stretch toward 25,600
- Expected daily play: Range between 25,000 and 25,300 with tilt toward downside unless strong intervention or reversal emerges.
🔍 GIFT Nifty / pre-open read
The futures are signaling a weak open; modest discount to spot suggests downward bias into the opening hour.
📈 FII Futures positioning (recent trend)
- The pattern has been one of short covering rather than fresh longs.
- Net futures exposure is edging less negative.
- This suggests any recovery today may be capped unless fresh long interest kicks in to support a sustained bounce.
📑 September options OI map
- Call OI (resistance): Heavy build around 25,300 – 25,500 strikes
- Put OI (support): Concentrated in 24,800 – 25,100 strikes
- Inference: The trading battleground is roughly 24,900 – 25,400. Puts are defending 25,000 region; calls are expected to act as ceiling near 25,400–25,500.
📰 Key news & risk triggers
- U.S. H-1B visa fee hike is unnerving IT names; that’s weighing on market sentiment broadly.
- The sharp rupee slide is adding cost pressure for importers and pressuring confidence.
- Persistent FII exits are reinforcing negative momentum, especially in mid & small caps.
- No big domestic event today, so global cues and currency will likely dominate.
🌐 U.S./Global cues & economic events tonight
- Watch U.S. inflation data and Fed / central banker comments — anything hawkish will pressure yields, the dollar, and spill into India.
- Global investor risk aversion may re-surface if U.S. bond yields jump or growth data surprises.
🧭 Trading playbook & tactical guide
- Base case: trade the lower range — 25,000 – 25,300
- Bearish trigger: break & hold under 24,950 → next leg toward 24,750 / 24,500
- Bullish trigger (counter): sharp reclaim above 25,300 with strong futures flow → test 25,400 / 25,500
- Tactics:
- Look to sell into strength near 25,200 – 25,300 with tight stops.
- Buy small bounces only if confirmed by futures short covering (i.e. delta shift).
- Monitor USD/INR breaks & FII futures flow early in the session—they’ll likely dictate intraday bias.