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Market snapshot (pre-open)
- Tone: flat to mildly positive.
- GIFT Nifty: indicating a small gap-up bias versus previous close.
- INR & crude: stable-to-firm USD; crude holding in a mid-range — not a fresh headwind this morning.
Nifty — key levels (intraday)
- Immediate supports: 24,250 – 24,180, then 24,000.
- Immediate resistances: 24,720 – 24,850, then 25,000 (psychological).
- Bias: Neutral → turns constructive only on sustained trade above 24,720; slips cautious below 24,180.
FII/DII cash activity (last session)
- FIIs: net sellers (continued preference to lighten risk on upticks).
- DIIs: net buyers (providing counter-flow support on dips).
- Read-through: Domestic money is cushioning declines; foreign flow still a headwind on strength.
FII index futures — longs vs shorts
- Posture: FIIs remain net short in index futures (shorts materially higher than longs).
- Implication: Room for short-covering pops if Nifty pushes through the 24.7k band; conversely, fresh pressure if rallies stall near 25k.
August monthly options — OI map (high level)
- Call OI (resistance): heaviest concentration around 25,000, with notable stacks at 24,900 / 24,800.
- Put OI (support): meaningful buildup across 24,600 → 24,000, densest around 24,200–24,400.
- Max-pain zone (indicative): mid-24k. A clean breakout above the 25k call wall likely triggers fast short covering; a slip under 24.2k risks accelerated long unwinds.
News & updates (what matters for the open)
- Results tape: Ongoing Q1 FY26 prints keep stock-specific action elevated; financials, consumer, and select industrials remain in focus.
- Macro backdrop: Trade/tariff headlines and global risk appetite still set the tone intraday; watch for any abrupt headlines that can override technicals.
US market tonight (India time)
- Calendar tone: No “blockbuster” print flagged for tonight; focus stays on rates narrative, yields, and US earnings headlines. Any surprise Fed-speak or data beat/miss can swing overnight risk and gap our open tomorrow.
What I’m watching today (playbook)
- Open vs 24,720: A firm open and acceptance above 24,720–24,850 → scope for a push toward 25,000 on short covering.
- Defence of 24,250 / 24,180: If dips are bought here with rising futures basis, mean-reversion longs look attractive with tight stops.
- Options bands: Price reaction at 25,000 (CE wall) and 24,200 (PE wall) will define follow-through.
- Flows: Any sign of FII short covering into strength (drop in short OI / pickup in index futures longs) can extend intraday rallies.
- Sector rotation: Financials for index leadership; watch autos/industrials for relative strength; metals sensitive to global prints and China headlines.
Quick risk summary
- Setup: Two-way market. Domestic flows supportive; FIIs still a drag. Elevated short interest + crowded call walls = whipsaw risk near resistance. Use defined stops; size down into 25k and add only on acceptance above it.