The Indian stock market is poised for a flat to cautiously positive opening today. While global markets offered mixed cues, the underlying strength of the manufacturing sector and some domestic stock-specific developments will influence early trade, even as FIIs continue to remain net sellers.
Key Pointers for Today’s Opening:
- GIFT Nifty Position: GIFT Nifty futures are trading around 25,577 – 25,580 in early morning trade (as of 8:23 AM IST).
- Compared to Nifty Spot (Tuesday’s close): Nifty 50 spot closed at 25,541.80 on Tuesday. This suggests a potential gap-up opening of approximately 35-40 points for the Nifty 50 spot index at market open.
- Compared to Nifty July Futures (Tuesday’s close): Nifty July 2025 futures closed at 25,546.10 on Tuesday. Comparing today’s GIFT Nifty (around 25,577) to Tuesday’s Nifty July Futures close indicates a positive opening of approximately 30-31 points for the July futures contract itself. This indicates a mild positive sentiment carrying over in futures.
- Mixed Global Cues:
- US Markets Mixed: Overnight, US markets ended mixed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit new all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped marginally. This provides a somewhat balanced lead.
- Asian Markets Mixed: Other major Asian markets are showing mixed trends this morning, with some (like Kospi) gaining, while others (like Nikkei, ASX 200) showing slight dips.
- Crude Oil: Brent crude saw a jump of nearly 3% yesterday, settling higher at around $69 per barrel. Rising crude oil prices can be a concern for India.
Market Performance Last Trading Day (Tuesday, July 2, 2025):
- Range-Bound & Marginal Gains: The Indian market ended marginally in the green after a largely flat and range-bound session, reflecting investor indecision.
- Nifty 50: Ended up by 24.75 points (0.10%) to close at 25,541.80.
- BSE Sensex: Ended up by 90.83 points (0.11%) to settle at 83,697.29.
- Bank Nifty: Advanced by 0.26% to 57,459.45 levels, showing resilience.
- Sectoral Performance: PSU Banks, Oil & Gas, and Metal sectors gained. FMCG, IT, and Media sectors were the major losers.
- Broader Market: Midcap and Smallcap indices ended largely flat or with minor declines, reflecting selective action.
- India VIX: The volatility index India VIX slumped 2.01% to 12.53 levels, indicating reduced apprehension.
- Rupee Appreciation: The Indian Rupee appreciated by 23 paise against the greenback to close at 85.52.
FII and DII Data (July 2, 2025):
- FII (Foreign Institutional Investors): Net sellers of ₹1,561.62 crore in the cash market. This marks a continuation of significant selling by FIIs.
- DII (Domestic Institutional Investors): Net buyers of ₹3,036.68 crore in the cash market. DIIs continue to provide robust support, absorbing the FII outflows and sustaining market levels.
FII Long Contracts (Index Futures) and Short Contracts (July 2, 2025):
- FII Index Futures: On July 2, 2025, FIIs continued to be net sellers in Index Futures, with a net value of -₹2,057.50 crore.
- This indicates that FIIs are maintaining or increasing their net short position in the derivatives segment for the fresh July series, reflecting a bearish or cautious outlook from them. Their net short position in index options also increased.
July Month OI (Open Interest) – Expiry July 31, 2025:
- As of July 2, 2025, for the July 3, 2025 (weekly) and July 31, 2025 (monthly) expiries:
- Maximum Call Open Interest (Weekly 03 JUL): Concentrated at 25,600 (around 1.7 crore shares) and 25,700 strike prices. These will act as immediate resistance levels for today’s weekly expiry.
- Maximum Put Open Interest (Weekly 03 JUL): Strong concentrations are at 25,400 (around 85.6 lakh shares) and 25,300 strike prices, indicating immediate support levels for today.
- For the full July 31st monthly series, early OI suggests significant Call OI at 26,000 and Put OI at 25,000-25,500.
Support and Resistance for Nifty 50 (July 3, 2025):
- Immediate Support: 25,400 (Strong Put OI for weekly expiry)
- Stronger Support: 25,300 (Key pivotal support)
- Further Support: 25,230 – 25,222 (Previous swing highs now support)
- Immediate Resistance: 25,550 – 25,600 (Psychological level and strong Call OI for weekly expiry)
- Stronger Resistance: 25,640 – 25,740 (Previous gap-down area and strong hurdle)
- Further Resistance: 25,850 – 26,000 (Significant Call OI for monthly expiry)
News and Updates (After Market Hours Tuesday & Early Morning Today):
- HSBC India Manufacturing PMI (June 2025): The PMI for June rose to a 14-month high of 58.4, up from 57.6 in May.1 This strong data point released yesterday after market hours is a significant positive for the manufacturing sector and overall economic sentiment.
- HDB Financial Services IPO Listing: HDB Financial Services IPO is scheduled to list on the bourses today, July 2.2 Its performance will be closely watched.
- Other IPO Listings: Indogulf Cropsciences (Mainline), Moving Media, Valencia India, Ace Alpha, and Pro FX (all SME) are also scheduled to list today.
- Company Specific News:
- PNB, Indian Bank: Stocks to watch, possibly due to positive outlook in PSU banks.
- Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta (Q1 Update): Metals stocks could be in focus after yesterday’s gains in the sector.
- Escorts Kubota, Voltas, Max Financials: Other stocks highlighted for attention today.
- DMart, Nykaa: May see specific movements due to block deals or analyst calls (e.g., Macquarie maintaining ‘Underweight’ on DMart).
- Tata Steel, JSW Steel, UltraTech Cement, Maruti Suzuki, Asian Paints: Were among Nifty gainers yesterday.
- Shriram Finance, Bajaj Finserv, IndusInd Bank, HDFC Life, L&T: Were among Nifty losers yesterday.3
- Torrent Pharma-JB Chemicals Deal: Details of the acquisition will continue to be analyzed, impacting these pharma stocks.
- Gujarat Gas: Recommended as a buy by some analysts, with a bullish short-term outlook.
- IndiGo & Max Healthcare: Could see passive inflows due to potential inclusion in indices.
- Hero MotoCorp & IndusInd Bank: Might face outflows due to potential exclusion from indices.
Events in US Market Today (Wednesday, July 3, 2025):
- Early Market Close: The US stock market (NYSE, Nasdaq) and bond markets will close early today at 1:00 PM ET (10:30 PM IST). This is in observance of the Independence Day holiday tomorrow.
- Independence Day (July 4th): US markets will be closed all day tomorrow, July 4th. This shortened trading session and upcoming holiday could lead to reduced liquidity and potentially higher volatility in the US market.
- Economic Data: Key US economic data to watch today includes the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) numbers and Factory Orders. These will provide fresh insights into the US labor market and manufacturing sector.
Overall Outlook:
The Indian market is likely to open with a mild gap-up or flat, consolidating after yesterday’s range-bound trade. While a strong domestic manufacturing PMI is positive, persistent FII selling and their net short stance in futures indicate caution. The market will closely watch the performance of the HDB Financial Services IPO listing. The shortened trading day in the US and the upcoming holiday might temper global cues. Volatility is expected, especially around the 25,600 and 25,400 levels, as it’s the weekly expiry for July 3.