📈 Pre-Market Brief — India (Wed, 29 Oct 2025)
Topline view
Expect a mildly constructive open. Overnight cues are tilted positive, but the session is event-sensitive (Fed decision later today) and will react to any sharp USD/INR or yield moves. Trade the early range; use futures/option flow to confirm conviction.
Quick market snapshot (pre-open)
- GIFT Nifty: signaling a positive open — trading with a modest premium to yesterday’s close.
- USD/INR: hovering around ~88.15–88.35 (rupee a touch soft but not dislocated).
- Bias: constructive but vulnerable to Fed headlines and currency moves.
Nifty — actionable levels today
- Immediate support: 25,900 – 25,850
- Primary floor: 25,600 – 25,500
- Immediate resistance / pivot: 26,000 – 26,050
- Stretch resistance / target if momentum holds: 26,200 – 26,400
How to read it: treat 25,900–26,000 as the tactical pivot zone. Dips into the 25.6k area should find buyers; rallies into 26.0–26.1k will face the first real supply test.
FII / DII — last full trading day (market read)
- FII (cash): mixed participation across recent sessions — offshore flows have been a blend of buying and selling; on the latest full session the offshore stance was net mixed/moderate (no extreme one-way flow).
- DII (cash): domestic institutions continue to be active buyers and remain the reliable bid on dips.
(I pulled exchange reads this morning — flows are best read as “DIIs steady buyers; FIIs mixed” rather than a single sharp directional print.)
FII activity — index futures (longs & shorts, recent change)
- Long contracts (approx net change): modest net additions — think low-to-mid thousands of contracts added across recent sessions.
- Short contracts (approx net change): some short trimming / selective new shorts — net short exposure has reduced versus earlier in the month.
Implication: FIIs have been reshaping positions (adding hedged long exposure while trimming naked shorts). That makes the market sensitive to short-covering (would spike rallies) or fresh short builds (would cap gains).
October options — OI battleground (nearby expiries)
- Largest Call OI (resistance): 26,000 CE (major overhead shelf).
- Largest Put OI (support): 25,000 PE (primary protective base).
Trade inference: the near-term options battleground is roughly 25,000 – 26,000. Expect dips toward 25.0k to see put support and rallies into 26.0k to meet call supply unless sellers are displaced by short-covering.
News & market movers this morning
- Macro: Fed policy decision and Chair’s press conference are the dominant event risks today — tone will move U.S. yields, the dollar and EM flows.
- **Domestic:**DIIs remain the steady bid; watch large caps and banks for leadership. IT/exporters are currency-sensitive and may lag if the rupee weakens.
- Risk flash: any hawkish surprise from the Fed or a sudden USD/INR jump will quickly flip intraday bias.
U.S. events to watch (today / tonight IST)
- Federal Reserve policy decision and press conference — primary market mover. Expect headlines-driven volatility; avoid large directional positions into the print unless you’re ready for rapid whipsaws.
USD/INR & currency read
- Current band: ~88.15–88.35 per USD.
- Near-term levels to watch: 88.50–88.90 (stress zone to the upside); ~88.00–87.80 (supportive band to help risk).
A sustained move above ~88.5 would increase pressure on rate-sensitive names; a firming rupee would be supportive for the market.
Short, practical playbook (my rules for the desk)
- Base intraday band: 25,850 – 26,050 (trade light into the Fed).
- Bull trigger: decisive hold & expansion above 26,050 with visible futures short-covering → target 26,200 / 26,400.
- Bear trigger: break & sustain below 25,850 – 25,800 with accelerating selling → target 25,600 / 25,400.
- Tactics: keep sizes small into the Fed; use the first 45 mins to read FII futures delta and option-chain reactions. Buy shallow dips into the put-OI band only if USD/INR stabilises; trim into rallies at the call-OI ceiling.