The Indian stock market is poised for a positive opening today, indicated by strong cues from GIFT Nifty (formerly SGX Nifty). This upbeat sentiment is a blend of yesterday’s resilient domestic performance, positive global closing trends, and significant domestic economic optimism.
Key Pointers for Today’s Opening:
- GIFT Nifty Signals Gap-Up: GIFT Nifty futures are trading significantly higher, around 24,890 – 24,913, indicating a potential gap-up opening of 120-140 points for the Nifty 50. This suggests strong bullish momentum heading into the session.
- Positive Global Lead:
- US Markets Closed Higher: Despite initial jitters over renewed trade tensions, US markets (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) staged a strong recovery and closed in the green on Monday, primarily driven by a resurgence in the AI trade and gains in energy and steel stocks. This provides a positive overnight cue.
- Asian Markets Mixed to Positive: Other Asian markets are showing a mixed to positive trend this morning, with some indices also trading higher.
- Strong Domestic Fundamentals:
- Better-than-Expected GDP Data: India’s Q4 FY25 GDP growth of 7.4% (vs. 7.2% expected) is a significant positive. This solid economic performance underpins investor confidence and provides a strong fundamental support for the market.
- Resilience Yesterday: The Indian market showed remarkable resilience yesterday, recovering significantly from its intraday lows despite global trade war concerns, ending only marginally in the red. This highlights strong domestic buying interest.
- Anticipation of RBI Rate Cut:
- The RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled from June 4-6, with the policy decision expected on Friday, June 6. There’s a widespread consensus among economists for a 25 basis points repo rate cut. This expectation is a major positive catalyst for the market, particularly for interest-rate sensitive sectors like banking and real estate. Some reports even suggest a “jumbo” 50 bps cut is possible, which would be a significant boost.
- Institutional Flows:
- DII Buying: Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have been consistent net buyers in the Indian market, providing a crucial counterbalance to Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) selling. Their continued support is key to market stability.
Key Levels to Watch for Nifty 50:
- Support: 24,700, 24,650, 24,500
- Resistance: 24,800, 24,900, 25,000 (a strong psychological barrier)
Stocks in Focus Today:
- Yes Bank: Board is scheduled to consider a fundraising plan today (June 3).
- Godrej Properties: Announced a large new premium housing project in Pune with an estimated revenue of ₹4,200 crore.
- Tata Motors: Reported an 8.6% decline in total sales for May 2025 (YoY), which could lead to some weakness.
- TVS Motor: Reported a 17% rise in total sales for May (YoY), likely to see positive movement.
- Alembic Pharma: Received four observations from the US FDA for its Gujarat plants, potentially negative.
- PSU Banks: Likely to remain in focus due to expectations of an RBI rate cut and their recent strong performance.
- Metal Stocks: Could face some pressure due to renewed US tariff threats on steel, though the US steel stocks themselves rallied yesterday.
- New Listings/IPOs: Ganga Bath Fittings IPO details (price band, lot size) are out, with listing expected June 11.
Global & Domestic Data to Watch Today:
- India Final Manufacturing PMI (May 2025): The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 57.6 in May (from 58.2 in April), a three-month low, but still indicating solid expansion. This data will be keenly observed for the details of manufacturing activity.
- US JOLTS Job Openings (May): (Due later today, 10:00 AM ET / 7:30 PM IST) This will provide fresh insights into the US labor market health.
- US Factory Orders (April): (Due later today, 10:00 AM ET / 7:30 PM IST) This will provide a snapshot of manufacturing sector activity.
Overall Outlook:
The Indian market is expected to open on a positive note, driven by strong domestic economic data and optimism surrounding the upcoming RBI monetary policy. While global trade tensions remain a concern, the positive closing in US markets and the strength in GIFT Nifty suggest that domestic factors are currently outweighing external headwinds. Investors will keep a close eye on the RBI’s stance and further global developments.